This is very long but I consider this a must read.
posted on
Jul 16, 2008 10:01AM
Camino Rojo Mexico : In-situ - 4.0 million ounces gold; 68.32 million ounces of silver.
SILVER INVESTOR MESSAGE
Source for Silver Eagles
This message is going out to the Silver Investor mailing list. We have had numerous requests to help people find a source for Silver Eagles. Miles Franklin was one of the highest rated dealers in our bullion sellers report and we are letting our readers know that Miles Franklin has only about 30 sealed 2008 mint boxes left that contain 500 one ounce Silver Eagles.
Sincerely,
David Morgan
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Established 1990 July 15, 2008 Issue #62
Welcome to Miles Franklin WEEKLY GOLD AND SILVER UPDATE Dear David Morgan As the bull market in precius meotals continues it's 7 year advance, there's a need to supplement the Miles Franklin Newsletter with timely updates. They will focus on interesting and important events in the precious metals industry, and will be emailed mid-week. David Schectman CEO, Editor in Chief Miles Franklin |
So much to say, so much to do, so little time |
Honestly folks, my head is spinning this morning. Less than 24 hours ago, I finished the Miles Franklin monthly 12 page newsletter and I barely scratched the surface of the significant topics that should be covered. Jim Sinclair's prophetic words, "This is it," keep ringing in my ears. When asked what he would do if he were President, he replied "I'd resign." Sinclair's analysis and advice is as good as it gets and he is telling you - using my own words - that it's too late to fix the problem! This is it - we're screwed! Sorry to ruin your day, but if you are still mostly or entirely in dollars and are not making immediate plans to run for the hills then you will be screwed! |
The financials are collapsing, so what happens? Gold goes down, silver goes down, oil sells off, and the Dow goes up! |
GATA's Chris Powell hit the nail on the head: There are no markets anymore, just interventions. This morning gold was up nearly $10 and silver was flying. Then Bush and Bernanke appeared on TV trying to sooth the market. Suddenly, gold was taken down $20 from the high, silver fell nearly a buck, The DOW rallied 150 points, oil fell $7, and the dollar firmed up off its lows. Can't you see what's happening? Can there be any doubt that there is a Gold Cartel out there and Plunge Protection Team which are constantly interfering in US financial markets to influence market participants and perceptions. Count on this type of market intervention whenever Bush or Bernanke appear on TV and whenever a US economic report is released that is very inflationary and VERY gold friendly? It happens every time. |
Not one person in ten thousand has a clue |
Most people don't have a clue about what is coming down the road now. How can they? Our government has rigged the markets for years and years and our media has forgotten what honest open-minded reporting is all about. I was talking to a close friend yesterday and he told me that he just heard an "expert" on CNBC tell the audience that the failure of IndyMac was nothing to worry about - it was just one bank. How on God's green earth do they allow such idiots to mis-lead the listeners? Just one bank? This is the second largest bank failure ever, (second in size only to the 1984 failure of Continental Illinois Bank which led to a big jump in the price of gold at the time). Don't these fools realize that the Federal takeover of this "one bank failure" is going to leave 10,000 depositors with $1 billion in deposits that EXCEED the $100,000 FDIC insurance limit and they will be luck to get any of it back. Don't they realize that this "one bank failure" will use up 10% of the total FDIC fund, which is only $53 billion. How safe if your money in your bank? How safe is the dollar? An article in yesterday's Wall Street Journal reports that analysts believe that as many as 150 banks nationwide could fail over the next year a half. Bob Chapman recently stated that the failure of just one mid-sized bank would wipe out the entire FDIC insurance fund. What then? More government bailouts with newly created money? As Jim Sinclair says, "Weimar Republic, here we come." |
George Soros says the current credit crisis is the most serious financial crisis of our lifetime |
He says Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac won't be the last financial disruption. They face a solvency crisis, not a liquidity crisis. It is inevitable that this financial crisis will affect the real economy. The dollar is vulnerable as the economy slides into recession and the government's response involve bailouts and more debt accumulation. |
Wall Street and the major media applaud the actions of the Fed and the Treasury in the Fannie and Freddie bailouts. All is well in dreamland! |
First it was Bear Stearns, then Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and now IndyMac. All are gone or government restructured within months of each other. Who is next? U.S. banks, such as Washington Mutual and Cleveland's National City, are in full retreat following the collapse of IndyMac. Washington Mutual went down 35% and National City plunged 27%. There are sure to be many more in the near future. Well, if you want my take on all of this, you should expect higher US interest rates, a weaker dollar and the soaring price of gold. |
Sinclair lays it out for you - he is right, "this is it" |
Gold is headed to and through $1200. This is the Mantra and truth. All "smoke and mirror" reactions are buys. That is the entire review. I do not think this, I know this. Why, you ask? History was made last week but so few understand it and less understand how to protect themselves. The events of last week are so serious that saving current newspapers for the generations to come will amaze the people who read them in the future. Some of the questions they will ask are:
Freddie and Fanny are to be rescued by smoke and mirrors designed to look like private sector investments. This weekend the US Treasury and The US Fed are calling all the banks and financial institutions that have populated the Begging Bowl Fed Loan Window to stay solvent and instructed them to buy the multi-billion dollar bond issue scheduled to be auctioned on Monday. That is a joke as these institutions will have to buy them for their own account if they don't have insane clients to stuff with this paper. The question is where are these busted financial entities getting the funds for the Fanny and Freddie bail out? Are these funds coming from the various Federal government entities that can buy any US security or bond? Remember last Thursday?
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Asia, Europe stocks drop on credit woes
By LOUISE WATT, Associated Press Writer LONDON |
Asian and European stock markets fell Tuesday as investor confidence in the U.S. financial system eroded further despite a government-backed plan to help beleaguered mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In morning trading in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.27 percent to 5,233.10, Germany's DAX lost 1.80 percent at 6,088.40, and France's CAC-40 retreated 1.51 percent to 4,079.91. In Asia, every major index suffered declines, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropping more than 3.8 percent and Taiwan's benchmark losing over 4.5 percent. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index dropped nearly 2 percent to close at 12,754.56. While losses spread across most sectors in Asia, financials were hit particularly hard as investors worried that trouble in the U.S. financial markets would spillover to Asia. Japanese traders were rattled by a local business newspaper report that the country's top three banks hold a combined 4.7 trillion yen ($44 billion) in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt. Another newspaper report unnerved Taiwan's market with news that at least two leading financial institutions have invested in the mortgage giants, and the country's central bank may also have purchased their bonds. In China, rumors were circulating that the Chinese government had also invested in Fannie and Freddie bonds. The two government-chartered companies received a boost Sunday when the U.S. central bank and Treasury Department promised to step in with short-term funding and other aid should mortgage losses mount. Together, the companies hold or back about half the outstanding mortgages in the United States. A sell-off of regional banks overnight on Wall Street, as well as fears that other American banks might face difficulties ahead, only added to the unease. On Monday, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 45.35, or 0.41 percent, to 11,055.19 after spiking nearly 140 points in early trading. "Investors are quite concerned we could be heading toward a meltdown in the equities market if there's no rebuilding in confidence, especially in the U.S.," said Alex Tang, head of research at Core Pacific-Yamaichi in Hong Kong. In Japan, banks and insurance issues got slammed. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group plunged 5.32 percent, Mizuho Financial Group was down more than 5 percent, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group plunged 6.11 percent. Earlier in the day, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates on hold, deciding to take a wait-and-see approach amid the current volatility. "With regard to risk factors, global financial markets remain unstable and there are downside risks to the U.S. and the world economy," the central bank's policy board said in a statement. A higher yen dragged down major exporters such as auto makers and electronics firms. A stronger Japanese currency reduces the value of exporters' profits when repatriated from abroad. In Hong Kong, the blue-chip Hang Seng Index plunged almost 840 points to 21,174.77 _ its lowest close in nearly four months. China's biggest lender, ICBC, dove nearly 5.2 percent, and HSBC lost more than 3 percent. Heavyweight China Life Insurance slid 5.3 percent. In mainland China, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.4 percent to close at 2779.45. The drop was sharpest for real estate developers, banks and insurers. Among financial companies, China Life and Ping An Insurance both tanked 6 percent. Midsize lender Pudong Development Bank Ltd. dropped 7.1 percent. The government is due to release closely watched inflation data Thursday, which could add to pressure for an interest rate hike. Analysts expect a decline from May's 7.7 percent but expect the rate to stay above the government's 4.8 percent target for the year. Elsewhere, South Korea's benchmark slid 3.2 percent, India's Sensex was down 4.6 percent in late trade and Australia's main index lost 2.1 percent. |
Richard Russell comments on the dollar (www.dowtheoryletters.com) |
Remember all the recent talk about "the strong dollar"? It's not happening. Below we see a daily chart of the dollar, and what we have here is a perfect head-and-shoulders top pattern. Friday the pattern started to break down. Today the decline went further. It wouldn't take much for the dollar to break to a new low. Score Board -- Year to date -- All Down with a bow to globalization -- Index S&P 500 -15.59% Frankfurt Dax -23.73% London FTSE 100 -18.51% Hong Kong Hang S -20.24% Paris CAC-40 -26.96% Tokyo Nikkei 225 -14.82% ASIA Seoul Composite -17.37% Singapore Straits Times -15.55% Sydney All Ordinaries -21.07% Taipei Taipex -14.83% Shanghai Shanghai B (China) -39.94% A 1-year T-bill pays about 2.2% interest, but the CPI is rising at 4.2%. Thus, in one year you have lost 2% of your purchasing power, but probably even more because the true rate of inflation is much higher than 4.2% (John Williams of ShadowStats estimates the rate of inflation is over 10%). In contrast to this loss of purchasing power from holding dollars, gold has risen seven years in a row at an annualized average rate of 17.4%. This year gold is already up 14.9%, and silver is doing even better. It has risen 26.7% so far this year. The metals will continue to rise as the dollar continues to plunge. We have now broken 72.00 on the USDX. Sinclair's 62.00 prediction will come faster than anyone can imagine. The dollar is sitting on the bottom trendline of its recent uptrend channel, threatening to fall into the abyss. Avoid the dollar. Like I said, own gold and silver instead. Since the Fed will not raise rates to save the dollar and fight inflation you will see gold and silver and many of the commodities continue to levitate. They really have no choice because if they do raise rates they will collapse of the real estate market, and it will increase the problems besetting the big banks and put the nail in the coffin of the already tumbling stock market. Quite a corner that they have painted themselves into. |
The Dow and gold |
Richard Russell points out that the ratio between the Dow and gold has hit a new low. Currently, the Dow will buy only 11.44 ounces of gold. In July 1999 one share of the Dow bought 43.75 ounces of gold. In other words, since mid-1999 the Dow has lost 73.8% of its value in terms of real money -- gold. Talk about a silent and insidious bear market, you're looking at one. Gold seems ready to mount an assault on the psychologically important $1,000 level. Sinclair says, $1000 is not the number, but instead $990 is going to be the Battle at the Bridge and we are the knight. It will delay us a tad, but not stop us. Look forward to $1200 as the most powerful magnet plus $25 to $50 being the Normandy Beach for the gold price. It is all in the dollar. Oil is a major side show. Gold on the move, and today the stocks responded. Cash and gold, remember what I advised -- CASH and GOLD. |
Richard Russell on the stock market |
What am I thinking about these bright summer days? I'm thinking, as usual, about a long list of things, but one item I've been zeroing in on is the50% Principle as it applies to the current market. The 50% Principle works like this -- We have the Dow low of 7286 recorded in October 2002. And we have the record Dow high of 14164 recorded in October 2007. The 50% or halfway level between Dow 7286 and Dow 14164 comes in a10725. As of today's close, the Dow wasjust 375 points above the 10725 halfway level. The 50% Principle tells us that if the Dow closes decisively below 10725, then there is a good chance the Dow will continue down to test the level from which the entire advance started -- that level is 7286. And I wonder to myself -- what would happen if the Dow breaks below 10725 and then declines to the 7286 area? My immediate thought is -- disaster. And probably a severe recession or even a depression. Remember, the Dow is only 375 points away from the halfway or 50% level. Anyway, that's one thing I'm thinking about, and that's one thing I'm watching. I'm watching it the way a barn owl watches a mouse -- in other words, with extreme interest. |
Fannie Plan a `Disaster' to Rogers; Goldman Says Sell By Carol Massar and Eric Martin |
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury Department's plan to shore up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is an ``unmitigated disaster' and the largest U.S. mortgage lenders are ``basically insolvent,' according to investor Jim Rogers.
Taxpayers will be saddled with debt if Congress approves U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's request for the authority to buy unlimited stakes in and lend to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Rogers said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Rogers is betting that Fannie Mae shares will keep tumbling. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Daniel Zimmerman said the mortgage finance companies' shares may fall another 35 percent and lowered his share-price estimate for Fannie Mae to $7 from $18 and for Freddie Mac to $5 from $17. Freddie Mac fell 18 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $7.57 at 11:16 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange trading, while Fannie Mae rose 13 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $10.38. ``I don't know where these guys get the audacity to take our money, taxpayer money, and buy stock in Fannie Mae,' Rogers, 65, said in an interview from Singapore. ``So we're going to bail out everybody else in the world. And it ruins the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and it makes the dollar more vulnerable and it increases inflation.' The chairman of Rogers Holdings, who in April 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, also said the commodities bull market has a ``long way to go' and advised buying agricultural commodities. Going `Bankrupt' Rogers, a former partner of hedge fund manager George Soros, predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999 and started buying Chinese stocks in the same year. He traveled the world by motorcycle and car in the 1990s researching investment ideas for his books, which include ``Adventure Capitalist' and ``Hot Commodities.' Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac each surged more than 20 percent in pre-market trading today after Paulson moved to stem a collapse in confidence in the two companies that purchase or finance almost half of the $12 trillion in U.S. home loans. Fannie Mae's market value is now about $10 billion, down from $38.9 billion at the end of 2007. Freddie Mac's market value has shrunk to about $5 billion from $22 billion at the end of last year. ``These companies were going to go bankrupt if they hadn't stepped in to do something, and they should've gone bankrupt with all of the mistakes they've made,' Rogers said. ``What's going to happen when you Band-Aid and put some Band-Aids on it for another year or two or three? What's going to happen three years from now when the situation's much, much, much worse?' Last Week's Slump Paulson's proposal, which the Treasury anticipates will be incorporated into an existing congressional bill and approved this week, signals a shift toward an explicit guarantee of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt. The Federal Reserve separately authorized the firms to borrow directly from the central bank. Washington-based Fannie Mae slid 45 percent last week, while McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac sank 47 percent on concern they may require a bailout that would wipe out shareholders. Former St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole last week said in an interview that Freddie Mac is technically insolvent under fair value accounting, which measure a company's net worth if it had to liquidate all its assets to repay liabilities. Poole said Fannie Mae may also become insolvent this quarter. Shorts Uncovered Rogers said he had not covered his so-called short positions in Fannie Mae and would increase his bet if it were to rally. Short sellers borrow stock and then sell it in an effort to profit by repurchasing the securities later at a lower price and returning them to the holder. The U.S. economy is in a recession, possibly the worst since World War II, Rogers said. ``They're ruining what has been one of the greatest economies in the world,' Rogers said. Bernanke and Paulson ``are bailing out their friends on Wall Street but there are 300 million Americans that are going to have to pay for this.' |
No one is talking about this but it may well be another giant problem in the brewing |
For the past few years Insurance companies have been aggressively marketing and selling a new form of variable annuity that allows you to buy stocks and the annuity guarantees that they will pay out based on the highest value of the stocks regardless how low they may fall. It sound's great, but maybe someone should ask "how can they do it?" Well, I did ask - a close friend's son runs a division of a major insurance company that sells these mutual fund and annuity products and I had him ask his son how can they afford the huge losses if (when) the stock market really takes a plunge? The answer that I got back was far from re-assuring. Here is what I was told. Most people never cash out, because the surrender penalties are very severe, so they take the long-term annuity payments. Investors can only withdraw 6% or 7% a year from the annuity. They have purchased re-insurance to cover any losses (derivatives again). |
Bank losses from credit crisis may run to $1,600bn, warns Bridgewater By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard |
Bridgewater Associates has issued an apocalyptic warning to clients that bank losses from the worldwide credit crisis may reach $1,600bn (800bn), four times official estimates and enough to pose a grave risk to the financial system. The giant US hedge fund said that it doubted whether lenders would be able to shoulder the full losses, disguised until now by "mark-to-model" methods of valuing structured credit. "We are facing an avalanche of bad assets. We have big doubts as to whether financial institutions will be able to obtain enough new capital to cover their losses. The credit crisis is going to get worse," said the group in a confidential report, leaked to the Swiss newspaper SonntagsZeitung. Bank losses on this scale would have far-reaching effects. Lenders would have to curtail loans by roughly 10-to-one to preserve their capital ratios. This would imply a further contraction of credit by up to $12,000bn worldwide unless banks could raise fresh capital. It would be almost impossible to attract or even find such sums from investors. While sovereign wealth funds command roughly $3,000bn in funds, this money is mostly committed already. The funds have grown extremely wary of Western banks with sub-prime exposure after burning their fingers so many times already. Jim Sinclair's comments on the above article by Pritchard: Once again we can thank the super wealthy OTC manufacturing geeks that are still producing this toxic crap. Soon we will hear $2 trillion, then $3 trillion as losses continue to increase. Gold is going to $1200. The US dollar is headed to .5200 and the euro to $2.00. Sinclair issues a warning on pension fund My Dear Friends, Are you still mulling over Harry Schultz and my statement that this is it? Are you stuck in the grip of inaction because some modest inconvenience is required in order to protect you and your family? There isn't a dime in this for us, just a lot of frustration when we see only a few thousand out of the hundreds of thousands that read this site protecting themselves. Very few of you have done anything more than look for a tip to trade with. I told you months ago that this is it through a personal email to those that requested to be on our free email list. Not only have I told you recently that this is it, but that the "it" of that formula is now. I do not, like last night, stay up well past the end of the day attending to you and my corporate responsibilities for some ego-bound purpose. You hear from me seven days a week. Are you going to take responsibility for your personal financial safety and do the necessary? It is so simple. Eliminate as many financial agents between you and what is yours as possible. Do it NOW! If only 13% act then I am deeply disappointed at your reaction to reality. Monty, Trader Dan and I have no intention of being used as a tip sheet. Kiss your pensions, both vested and God help you if not vested, away. Pension funds are taking massive hits that have significantly reduced and in some cases eliminated for practical purposes what many have been counting on for retirement. Are you going to wait to see your bank and broker go also? There is no way a government guarantee via quasi-government entities can insure all pensions and deposits up to $100,000. That is a master insurance accountant's worst nightmare. Have you prepared a thank you note to the herd of millionaire OTC derivative geeks for their fine work? Before this is over these financial sociopaths will anger the wrong person and someone will pay the ultimate price. Like the experience of a recently incarcerated hedge fund manager, you can run but you can't hide forever. Did you know his mother turned him in to the authorities? Respectfully yours, Jim |
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