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Paramagnetic Beads and QL Analyser are Proprietary Products

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Message: Re: Smile Doc!

Aug 04, 2010 05:15PM

Aug 04, 2010 05:54PM

Aug 06, 2010 12:44PM

Aug 06, 2010 02:56PM

Aug 07, 2010 10:01AM

Jag-this, I would not sell at a dollar unless that is a multiple at which you wish to recover your initial investment in CGNH and then ride out the remaining shares to what I believe is a predictable end for CGNH - acquisition by the corporate partner for the analyzer and cartridges (Merck IMO if not likely to acquire CGNH) especially if the partner is Siemens or J&J. An acquisition of a stand alone business entity with significant cash flow such as CGNH will be IMO post the launch of the POC analyzer is standard operating procedures for Siemens and J&J.

Rather than referencing future share value for CGNH to the value of CGNH post the merger, IMO the share price should be referenced to what the market thinks is a relevant capitalization value for a medical device company with two distinct revenue generating businesses - paramagnetic beads and cartridges for a POC analyzer. If you believe as I do that the base case revenue stream for CGNH will be $50 million per year

  • beads could bring CGNH at least $20 million per year in revenue
  • POC analyzer with cartridges is good for at least $30 million
  • 50 million shares issued (issued and exchange shares totalled)
  • a modest multiple of 10 for a medical device company
  • equals a share price of $10

But again I do not think the bigger companies in this space will permit CGNH to achieve such a valuation.

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