I do agree market sentiment dictates a lot of trade behaviour in the short term and a lot of manipulation occurs to affect sentiment, however over the long term the smart money moves to value .... so the two questions I ask myself in assessing this theory is where do I expect price of gold to go over the medium to long term and do the prices  of the components of the xgd reflect their correct potential given where I expect the long term price of gold to go.

I think as you point out that sentiment will first move towards the major producers until they are "right" priced before we will move towards a run on the juniors .... that said ... I will not sell any of my holdings of what I believe to be quality juniors, but I will look at selling the xgd as it continues its upward push to buy more juniors when that train takes off.

Orgy