In my opinion the prices of both oil and natural gas are based on perceived supply and actual demand.  The US government gives a report on both natural gas and oil prod, imports and inventory each week.  Gasoline demand, production and inventory are the main drivers for oil prices, forecasted demand and inventory control natural gas prices.  There is only so much storage capacity for natural gas and if there is moderate weather in both summer and winter natural gas inventory builds and prices go down. Naural gas demand is highest in the winter and last winter was mild.  The mild winter was followed by a relatively mild summer so natural gas prices are relatively low now because of high inventory.

Natural gas production for North America has peaked and is now in decline.  Mathew Simmons predicts a catastropic decline in the relatively near future.  We saw the effects of this a couple of years ago when electrical generation was primarily by natural gas.  Many of the electrical powerplants however can use multiple fuels and when natural gas skyrocketed a few years ago they switched back to coal.  Also, many chemical plants that used natural gas for a feedstock shut down and  either built new plants or expanded plants they had in countries that have plentiful natural gas resources.  There are considerable world reserves of natural gas but a large amount of it is considered stranded, that is no easy way to bring it to market.  Other countries that have very high reserves are building LNG plants so that they can export it to countries that need gas.  The US currently imports relatively little LNG at this time.

Martin