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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: January 14 Presentation Slides are up

Jan 12, 2008 10:25AM
1
Jan 12, 2008 06:51PM

Willbrich1day,,

I gave you a thumbs up cause you presented a well thought out argument..In some cases I would agree with you 100%, HOWEVER I disagree with your conclusion as I feel this train of thought doesn't apply to CLL.

I'll present a quick summary of what I understand to be your logic, PLEASE correct me if I'm wrong.

In a nutshell you're saying that although the financing deal has some validity to it long term,, on a short term basis it's hurting SP.The reason you're suggesting that is because you feel investors are adding a risk factor to the SP of having too much debt too soon with production too far away so they're staying away until what they feel are reasonable production levels.

Here is why I feel you're wrong.

We both agree that until the institutions start buying SP won't increase dramaticaly..Institutions will most likely be adding them to their mutual funds ( buying season is under way as people rush to top up their RRSP) .. In many cases the same institutions that made the financing deals also will be the ones purchasing the shares for their mutual fund offerings ( I believe RBC was involved)

My toughts. DISCLAIMER I MAY HAVE READ THINGS WRONG

1- the very fact that the financing was raised proves to investors that the financial institutions have faith in CLL. Yes They're in business to lend money,,BUT like I said with the mortgage scandal lending is tightening up as institutions have to deal with write downs..Look at the mess Citigroup is in.

2-The argument about money borrowed too soon would normaly be sound however not in this case. I went over CLL press release and slides.The loan was in US funds and was made when the dollar was par. The timing of the loan was probably linked to that.

3-The slide states that CLL has $400 cash on hand and $200 million unused credit..So there was an 800 million deal out of which 200 million was used to pay off earlier higher cost debt, $400 is a cash reserve and $200 million is unused credit. IN REALITY there is no additional risk to investors as $600 of the 800 million is either unused or cash on hand..the other 200 was an existing debt.

As for carrying charges and debt repayment..LOOK unless the financial guys at CLL are totally incompatent they're investing the 400 million cash on hand. I seriously doubt the money is in a zero interst savings account..Earnings from any investments ( hell even term deposits with zero risk) will offset any added cost for the loans.

BTW you do realize that CLL has enough cash to buy PDP, or buy back almost 100% of cll shares.

LONG RANT just my uninformed non professional oppinion as to why the financial deal has nothing to do with instiutional buying.

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