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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Incredible!

Incredible!

posted on Jan 19, 2008 07:53AM
How many of us, a year ago were rubbing our hands together, waiting for this point and time in the scheme of things, and now we're there, with the exception of course being our s/p?----Nothing has changed with management's plan, as far as we know, but who could have predicted the financial mess, created by the greed of the financial institutions, and of course the recession in the US.---But the fundlementals are still here, nothings changed as far as the success of CLL is concerned.----It's just the s/p that has investors in a dither, not where the company is, in their game plan.---The reason I posted 'incredible',  is because it's just that.---The interest charged by the institutions, (eventually around the 82 million mark per year), is being covered by the net being produced right about now, and the expected increase in production will be pure gravey, added to the bottom line.----If you go by managements statement released in the Summer of last year, (" we're expecting to tie in the gas part of our production in early first quarter of 2007, which will double our conventional production"), and add the 1000 bpd production, which management released in their latest update, we should be producing close to 5000 bpd already.----Using $40 net average, (net for conventional production is higher), I used an average, between the two.----$40 times 5000 barrels is $200,000. net per day.---Multiply this number by 365 days and you come up with $73 million average per year.---Add in the profits from the refinery and bingo, the interest is already being covered with just the 1000 bpd being produced as of now.----Now of course I'm assumming that the tie in is occurring right now, or within a couple of more weeks.----So in summerizing the above, everything is still going as planned, nothing has changed fundlementally with CLL's plan, and with production increasing past the 1000 bpd in the Great Divide, it's the real net back which will begin to show up in the books.---The next 9000 expected increase in production will all go into the bottom line and eventually, when the markets and economy begin to settle down, the p/e will return to normal for most companies, including ours. I'm still calling the production to hit its maximum by early in the 3'rd quarter, and not the end of this year.----So my numbers look like this.-----9000 bpd x $40 x 365days =$131,400,000, per year, divided by the number of shares, 209 million, = $ .628 p/s. Multiply that number, by 15, (times earnings) and you get the share price of $ 9.42.----That's if everything goes as planned, and the economy begins to recover by the 3'rd quarter.----INCREDIBLE ISN'T IT, BUT POSSIBLE.-----Incredible because people are panic selling with nothing to panic about, at least not what management's released.----Everyone have a great weekend.----CHEERS!!!----P/S, I'm not going to proof read all that, and I'm just going to go ahead and post.---
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