With Sp stuck in low 3's, many have presented theories as to why. The financing has been blamed, management has been blamed charts have been presented and discussed, yet no magic bullet has been found. Everyone does agree however that the fundamentals have not changed, which just confuses the hell out of everyone. SO all we can do is ride along and try and figure it out..

My background isn't finance, it's security and investigation, so I decided to look at the situation from that perspective. This is the conclusion I've reached..

There are basically 3 types of investors. ALL HAVE THE CAPACITY TO ACT ILLEGALLY AND IMMORALLY

The Opportunist

---invests primarily on specualtion,,loves to gamble, likes to invest in stocks driven by speculation not fundamentals, goes for the ride takes what he can then moves on to the next play. Will ride the stock up and short it down, loves daytrading..All about milking a play for the money..

The Short Seller

-- Not the evil monster everyone makes them out to be. All investing is a gamble, money is made if SP goes up or down.The short seller makes or loses his money on things not going well for either the economy or a particular company..Has little or no loyalty to any particular company as the more successful a company becomes the less money can be made by shorting it.

The Long

--generally the most patient, logical, naive and stressed out of all investors..Looks for long term growth and is willing to win or lose all on their choices, often obsessive to the point of holding a stock until it's worthless..They either win big or lose big. Invests on potential, holds on fundamentals

NOW companies have various stages of growth.

1- Conception.. 2- Setup--building the infastructure and getting everything ready to go into business. 3- Actually doing whatever the business does.

Now let's apply all of the above to CLL

1- Conception--company is formed, land is procurred and shares are issued. THE STOCK is primarily held by longs and opportunists..SP is driven exclusively by speculation.

2-Setup..The actual infastructure is starting to be built, Luke and Montana refinery are bought..THE SP hits $6 as speculation peeks.HOWEVER as the business plan becomes more of a realization the speculative nature starts to wane and the short possibilties rise. SP is primarily driven by the short postion.

3- Ramping up Production expansion....This phase started with steam injection in September.. With a 90 period before well heads being converted Short postions increased to over 9 million in early December, just prior to the end of steam. Well unfortunately the problems the shorts bet on never occured.Fortunately for the shorts a market meltdown did. ( as it did in August just prior to steam injection)The bottom was reached around $2.50 and the new platuea was established around $3.. Recent high volume and little price change would indicate that the shorts are covering.....SP will be driven by the short positions for at least another year until POD 1 is at full production, the market will then determine what a 10K bbl and 3k sweet crude oil producer is worth. AS the PODS are completed the risks are taken out of the equation, the shorts will have less potential to make money and the SP will be determined by the LONGS who will base the SP on the merit of the company not and WHAT IF'S

My conclusion is that current trading is taking place primarily between shorts and opportunists. PLUS CLL has had the misfortune of having market meltdowns just prior to hitting major milestones that would normaly have caused SP to increase. In both cases it's allowed shorts to not only cover , but to control the SP until they decide more money can be made riding the SP back up than shorting it.

I believe that's what's happening now,,shorts have covered, SP will increase as they ride the stock up to a level they feel comfortably to start shorting again...This cycle will continue for as long as money can be made shorting.

LONGS will eventually get control,,if the stress hasn't killed them by then.....

Anyways,,lot's of spare time on my day off so I hope you enjoy my rant.