The following is strictly my opinion using my own personal evaluation of Connacher’s Value:

  I think that any way you want to look at it that Connacher is drastically undervalued at a share price of $3.10.  They own 1400000 shares of PDP with a current market value of $113120000. Using 200,000,000 shares this comes to $0.56 per share.  They own the Montana refinery that in the 3rd quarter 2007 generated a margin of $11.31 per barrel of product sold.  They sold 10032 barrels per day of product during the 3rd quarter.  If you do a net present value for a revenue stream of this magnitude using 6% for 25 years, you get a value of $535,639,592.28 or $2.68 per share.  In the 3rd quarter they sold 2350 barrels of oil equivalent at 37.55 per barrel.  This revenue stream has a net present value (same basis as before) of $416,581,851.62 or $2.08 per share.  They are currently producing at least 2000 barrels per day of bitumen from POD 1. I estimate, based on Connachers own production cost given in one of their previous presentations at about $30.00/barrel, including interest on capital for this project, and a bitumen price of $55.00 a barrel that this revenue stream has a net present value of $236,043,772.34  or $1.18 per share.  Their oil sand leases are worth at least $500,000,000 or $2.50 per share.  If you add these up it comes to a real value currently for these assets of $9.01 per share.  Subtracting the $267,000,000 dept incurred for POD1 one or $1.33 per share gives a real current value for Connacher $7.67 per share!  I didn’t include the remainder of their current debt as they should still be holding most of it in cash which would balance  out.  

Martin