Expected return
posted on
Feb 26, 2008 07:11AM
The expected return has been raised which is leading to a nice pop. If production meets expectations then more risk will have been removed. I see current oil sands risk as 1) POD 1 production not being met; 2) higher costs at POD 1; 3) No EUB Approval at POD 2; 4) EUB Approval at POD 2 but higher then expected costs; 4) POD 2 production problems. Each one has a different weight with probably the heaviest weight assigned number 1. Once these risks are tackled I think the shorts will have to cover, like they might be doing now, and the SP up into a more comfortable range. Any thoughts?