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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: Cash Flow Estimate
1
Mar 05, 2008 06:18AM
1
Mar 05, 2008 08:27PM

You have spent more time at this than have. If I use Suncor's 2007 published statements (page 3) the SP/CF is 107/6 = 18. Your point (valid) is that juinior companies use a smaller multiplier because they have higher risk.

However, I think CLL's CF growth potential is much higher than Suncor's. CLL should reach 50 cents CF per share in 2008 & 1.00 in 2009. I don't think Suncor will double their CF from 2008 to 2009. As CLL achieves it`s production & CF goals the risk discount will decrease accordingly. I might add that a 10x CF multiple assigns absolutely zero value to unexploited reserves which seem to grow considerably year over year.

Speaking of reserves, CLL P1 reserves are 51 MM barrels at $100 per barrel (I know sweet crude) is $26 per share. The 800 MM P3 plus high estimate is $400 per share. I know it takes a lot of capital to convert these reserves into sweet crude cash flow but CLL has a game plan that is well thought out and seems to be working.

I don`t think the investing public has recognized the Alberta oilsands for the goldrush investment opportunity I think (OK hope) it is. The exploration risk is almost Nil, the political risk is the lowest in the world, and we are next door to the world`s largest consumer. And CLL has adopted a bite-size low cost & environmentally sensitive approach to exploiting these resources. I can`t imagine a better poker hand.

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