Hi Esch -

 Peak oil fascinates me, not only from the point of view of "Is it really true?", but also from indirect observations. At the outset, I subscribe to the logic in Matthew Simmons' book Twilight in the Desert. He seems to be on top of the situation - as far as anyone can be - and possibly more immportant, he has no vested interest to protect.

Consider possible fonflicts of interest that arises in the case of other commentators - representatives of Big Oil, or political leaderships from oil producing countries.

In the case of the former, to agree with Simmons that peak oil is neither here or near, is to risk a meltdown of share prices.

In the case of the latter, to agree with Simmons is to risk upsetting their populations, and in the case of OPEC countries, to risk their oil quotas.

To me these conflicts of interest constitute the bulk of the momentum for the arguments against peak oil coming soon.

One other thing - if we are in fact facing a slow decline in world oil production, would you invest billions in new refining facilities? Is this the reason for the refining bottlenecks?