Quiet on this forum so I am reposting my own "garbage" from the SH forum. JUREK

Moggs20
Thanks for weekly summary and as always timely commentary.
No surprises on bad Q4 numbers. I have been reporting in Jan/Feb/March that the CLL will have zero earnings in Q4 just like in Q3 (Q3 was skew by $14M of non cash items).
 

Earnings are irrelevant anyway
What it counts is the cash flow.
I am really puzzle by some posters, especially by rebels1 and 2violins who are very good posters and  one of the 4 or 5 on this board doing their own DD.

Their obsession with the P/E ratio and 15 times multiple is showing luck of understanding of energy sector evaluation. Also they mixing up revenues, net revenues, netbacks, cash flow with profit and Juniors explorers with producers.

Here some general rules:
Junior Explores like UTS or BQI are mostly evaluated on NAVPS ,not the earnings. Junior Explores/Producers like CLL  are the combinations of NAVPS and Cash flow/share and some more parameters like Debt/cash flow or EV/Daily bbl flow. Major producers and Integrated will be evaluated by cash flow/sh or P/E. Obviously this is  not the function of simple arithmetic's since every company is somewhat different.

Recently I have seen interesting evaluation approach which make sens for company like CLL.
33% of NAVPS (at $6 for CLL) = $2
33% of 8 X 2008 Cash/flow/share (for CLL $0.64 X 8) = $1.7
33% of 8 X 2009 cash /flow/share (for CLL $0.9 to $1 X 8) = $2.5
For the total of $6.2

Some future CLL numbers.
Like I said earnings are totally irrelevant .
2008 CLL Cash Flow:
Q1 conventional 12M (5 to 6 cents/sh) + POD1 $6.5M (3 cents /sh) = 9 cents/sh
Q2 conventional 6 cents + POD1 8 cents = 14 cents
Q3 conventional 6 cents + POD1 11 cents = 17 cents
Q4 conventional 6 cents + POD1 16 cents = 24 cents
2008 total cash flow 64 cents/sh
2009 cash flow $0.9 to $1
JUREK