The EPS is typically less than operating CF/share because Net Income includes a depletion/depreciation charge that is a non-cash item. The relationship between the two can be found on the first section of the Cash Flow Statement published quarterly. By estimating the non-cash components you should be able to estimate the cash flow as well.

As for doubling in 2009, I estimate Cash Flow to be approx 200 MM. 50MM from conventional and 150MM from POD1. The 150MM from POD1 = 10,000 bpd *(55 wellhead netback - $15 operating & transportation cost/barrel) * 365 days. CLL's recent NR quoted current wellhead netback in the $50 to $60 range. Of course we'll know a lot more about netbacks & operating costs after 2008 Q1 & Q2. I expect operating costs / barrel to start high (Q1 & Q2) and decline as max production is reached (Q3 & Q4).

The interest costs going forward will definitely be higher than the 7MM reported in 2007. The amount expensed on the Income Statement will depend on how much interest is capitalized as part of POD2, conventional drilling and reserve deliniation drilling. Again we'll have to wait for a few quarters before this becomes clear.

NPV of future earnings or cash flow is a very valid method to estimate a SP. The PE or CF multiple is a simple way of doing this. EG a multiple of 10 is nothing more than discounting the current earnings (or cash flow) in perpetuity using a discount rate of 10%. A multiple of 20 assumes a discount rate of 5% IE 1/20. A lower multiple implies a higher discount rate (or more risk associated with the cash flow). Until CLL can reliably generate Cash Flow from SAGD the market will continue to assign it a low multiple. This low multiple may well extend until POD 2 produces reliable cash flow. Many conservative investors will wait until CLL can prove it is not a one trick pony.

I don't expect to see a dividend from CLL until it has at least 3 producing PODS, a pipeline and a refinery expansion. At that point it should be generating significantly more free cash flow than is required to bring on additional PODS. Maybe in 5 years.