Thanks for the comments.

Eash.

If June POD1 production will not average 9000bbl/d Q2 average should be close to 8000 like I put in my table. You are right about Refinery and Luke.Their cash flow should be about 40 to 50% higher then in Q1. I will post the total numbers in the week or so.

Sharky.

My table of bitumen cash flow is for POD1 only.In 2 years a lot of things can happen. Algar is not approved yet and we can only hope that it will rump-up as planned.Hope does not bring any cash flow.

About multiples: 77 O&G Canadian Juniors producers Median SP/CF is 5 to 6 and EV/CF is 7 to 8. Remember this is cash flow not the earnings. If we are lucky market can award us with 8 to 10 CF/SP

bbgdays.

Yes, 40% royalties is killing the cash flow. Some posters are still confused about how the new (Jan 1009) royalties will work .

At the WTI prices above $120 the pre-payout (Jan2009) rates is 9%. Post-payout rate is 40%. The project (POD1) is reaching the payout when the cumulative gross revenue equals its cumulative cost.

Cumulative POD1 gross revenue in 2008/2009 will be about $525million. Cumulative cost including allowed capital, and Return Allowance (interest on the capital based on the prime rate) will not be higher then this(someone correct me if I am wrong). IMO in 2010 POD1 will start to pay 40% royalties if the price of oil will be above $120..

Cornergas.

I was too very surprise with the upstream (operating cost at $20 in March. I can not point out why is it above $15. In March SOR was responsibly low (NG cost is $8 to $9 per 1barrel of bitumen).

$5 extra dollars would add only $4.5 million per quoter (2 cents per share) and may increase the POD1 2008 cash flow to $0.50/sh.

As I said above I will look closer to Total CLL cash flow for 2008 but at the best estimate I can not see the conventional net cash flow going above $35 million and refining margin at $50M for the total of $0.40/sh or $0.9/share for total CLL 2008 net cash flow including the bitumen.

Just the small reminder to everyone.We are talking about net cash flow and not the net earnings which is totally different story.

How this will relate to CLL SP. It will all depend how the market will decide to look at the CLL. If they look at CLL as a junior(intermittent) producer we can get the 8 X net cash flow multiples----$7.2 per sh (at 10 X---$9/sh).

If they look at CLL as the "integrated producer " the picture is very fuzzy and the net earnings per share maybe in play which may have negative impact on the SP.