Knotmeter.Good observation.
$10 increase in price is related to the WTI oil price not the bitumen price. If you can go back to my post in July1 (POD1 net cash flow- see below) you can find the ratio POD1 bitumen netback to WTI oil price in 2008 is 31% according to CLL management numbers. In 2010 the ratio will drop to 17%.
Your calculation is OK just multiply your 10 cents by 31% and you will arrive with 3 cents.
Months
|
WTI ($) Average
(E)= estimate
|
CLL POD1 Wellhead netbac ($)
|
CLL POD1 Bitumen Netback ($)
|
Average POD1
production bbl/day
|
CLL netback VS WTI (%)
|
Net Cash flow (millions)
|
Net Cash flow per share($)
|
Royalties(%)
|
March
|
102
|
53
|
31.4
|
5200
|
30
|
5.1
|
0.02
|
1
|
April
|
109
|
56
|
33,5
|
7000
|
31
|
7
|
0.03
|
1
|
May
|
120
|
62
|
37.5
|
8000
|
31
|
9.3
|
0.04
|
1
|
June
|
125(E)
|
65
|
39
|
9000
|
31
|
10.5
|
0.05
|
1
|
Q2
|
120
|
62
|
37.5
|
8000
|
31
|
26.8
|
0.12
|
1
|
2008
|
120(E)
|
62
|
37.5
|
7600
|
31
|
100
|
0.45
|
1
|
2009
|
120(E)
|
62
|
34
|
10,000
|
28
|
110
|
0.55
|
9
|
2010
|
120(E)
|
62
|
20
|
10,000
|
17
|
70
|
0.32
|
40
|
Note: 1. Net revenue= Gross revenue - diluent cost - transportation cost 2. Wellhead netbacks= net revenue/bitumen production sold 3. Bitumen netback = (net revenue -Royalties -operational cost)/bitumen production 4. Net cash flow = net revenue -Royalties -operational cost 5. Net earnings related to POD1 production will be 30 to 100% lower the net cash flow depends on depletion, depreciation and amortization rate as well as Finance charges and tax . 6.Wellhead netbacks and Bitumen netbacks are based on March numbers provided by CLL management in Q1 financial report. 7. A. 2009 Royalties are based on pre payout rate of 6% B. 2010 Post-payout rate. POD1 cumulative 2008 and 2009 revenue will exceeds it`s cumulative costs(373 million). 8.2008 POD1 average production 7600bbl/d. Q3/4 10000/bbld and cash flow $0.15 per
|
