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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: POD1 Net Cash Flow sensitivity to WTI Oil price change

Thanks for constructive criticism.This is the only way we can learn from each other.

You say that in your opinion my numbers are low by factor of 2 to 3 and probably sensitivity ratio is 0.6 to 0.8. To bad you can`t specified how you arrived with your probable factors.

It is truth that some of the upstream and downstream cost are fixed and will not increase much with the WTI price. As per management these fixed are Power ,personnel and chemicals.

Other cost like price of Diluent, Natural gas, transportation will fluctuate with the price of oil.

For example: Price of diluent due to shortages is influence by supply and demand and WTI (it is higher the WTI oil). Q1 cost of diluent was 47% of dit-bit gross revenue. Average cost of NG used at POD1 in Q1 was $8,65. In Q2 it will be more like $10 - $11.

I try to take this factors in to the considiration in my calculations. The WTI/Bitumen ratio I poinetd out is for your simlpicity only so everybody can easely folow. I actualy crunch the real numbers.

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