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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: CASH FLOW VS EARNINGS

CASH FLOW VS EARNINGS

posted on Jun 16, 2008 04:48PM

Good discussion in last few day as oppose to recent sluggish CLL SP performance.

Some clarifying points:

I think most of us would agree that CLL should report $0.7 to $0.9 of NET CASH FLOW/SH based on CLL management netbacks and calculations presented by usual suspects on this board.

Unfortunately some of us jumping to wrong conclusions using this CASH FLOW numbers as EARNINGS and apply the multiples X 12 or X 15. In this sector Multiples for Cash Flow or EBITDA are totally different then for Earnings and are in the range of 5 to 9.

For example: Justin Bouchard (P.ENG) an annalist form Raymond James who recently increase the CLL target to $6.25 is using X 9 multiples with the 2008E CFPS of $0.68.

He is showing the CLL NAV at $6.29 or SP/NAVPS at 0.77 with average of 9 oilsand plays on his list at 0.76 .

What multiples the market will award CLL with? Nobody knows. Longs (most of us here) who trade occasionally when opportunity present itself are totally useless in this game. Small (8%) institutional money managers ( mainly index and sector funds) are not trading that much. Momentum players and shorts who are using the technical analysis backup by computer trading platforms are the only hope we have ,until .....management surprise as with something totally unexpected .













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