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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: RBC / CLL target $6 (not change )Positive Migration of Reserves

RBC / CLL target $6 (not change )Positive Migration of Reserves

posted on Jul 24, 2008 08:44AM

Different annalists, differently evaluation model, different targets. How the individual investors can take this seriously?

One question. How do you extract the bitumen from the P+P reserves using the SAGD process?

Positive Migration of Reserves

CLL ,Outperform, Speculative Risk, Price Target: $6.00

The total reserve base (including contingent and prospective resources) for CLL increased from 799 mmbbl at year-end 2007 to 843 mmbbl (up 6%).

P+P reserves increased from 178 mmbbl to 372 mmbbl (up 100%), as the company’s 120 core holes this winter resulted in a significant migration to P+P.

In RBC CM’s view, the increase in P+P reserves "de-risks" a significant portion of the company’s resource base. Approximately 44% of the company’s total resource base (843 mmbbl) is now categorized as P+P by engineering firm GLJ (previously 22%).

RBC CM has not changed the target price of $6.00 for CLL, as the resource base increase was relatively small and current models account for the all resources on a risked basis. The target price is roughly 70% of RBC CM risked NAVPS, which utilized the futures price deck as of July 9.

RBC CM continues to believe that the CLL offers investors exposure to value creation through the development......


Jul 25, 2008 06:44AM
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