Just come back from two weeks of vacation to see my CLL stop loses trigger on July31(pure luck).

This was a good news. Unfortunately CLL Q2 report is very disappointing.

As you can recall the board consensus was 22 to 24 cents of cash flow per share. Analysts consensus was 18 to 20 cents. CLL misted the expectation by more then 50%.

Earnings per share were even more disappointing. Without booking the "Micky Mouse" dilution gain on CLL loses in Petrolifera assets ($8 Mil) reported earnings would show negative 2 cents (talking about good accounting department).

Why did we all missed the estimates by so much?

1. Production numbers.

CLL reported average bitumen sold 6123 bbl/d vs expected 7500 to 8000 bbl/d ( look at the CLL previous presentations were they suggested production at much higher level then the Q2 report).

Refinery margins were negative (total disaster) vs expected $5 to $8 .

NG production and netbacks in line with the expectations.

2. Netbacks

With the average $120 WTI my Wellhead netbacks were in line with the CLL ($62 vs Cll $60.8).

Unfortunately CLL Total bitumen netbacks (wellheads-operational cost and royalties) were below expectation($30.9 vs $37). Operating cost ballooned to about $30 per bbl.

I think we have to take a second look at the 2008 numbers. CLL net cash flow will be much lower then expected $0.7 to $0.8. Possibly as low as 50 cents. The CLL share price maybe stuck in the $4 range for long time.