I use a little higher NG price because of the hedge and the CDN dollar dropping vs U.S. $. I also speculate that NG will rise in the coming months because of winter.
I use cash flow, earnings and NAVPS in valueing my buy and sell prices. I also look at the credibility of managment in how much they say actually comes true. Higher credibility will bring higher multiples which essentially means higher SP, also the reverse is true. DG's statement on Friday regarding production and Algar is huge. If what he says comes thru then we will see higher multiples paid. His statements don't change any cash coming or going it will simply affect his credibility and the multiple. Everything indicates DG is a cautious leader so I think he has a very good idea that Algar will be approved in October. Expect a small increase on Monday.