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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: Today's Recap/R_W
3
Sep 29, 2008 01:40PM

Sep 29, 2008 10:56PM

Sep 29, 2008 11:43PM

Sep 30, 2008 06:10AM

Sep 30, 2008 06:27AM
Gap

Sep 30, 2008 07:56AM

Hi Scott, you say:

$6.40 to $6.70 Cdn , so Connacher would have benefitted from this costless collar wouldn't it? Connacher's selling 2/3rd's of the natureal gas that it produces to pay for the natural gas that it burns at Great Divide is a wash.

It would be the a wash if the Luke upstream cost and royalties was zero.

Unfortunately it cost about $3.7 for 1 mcf. If Luke sell Ng for $6.4 their netback is about $2.7 (small conversion mcf to GJ).

I assume that POD1 NG requirement is supply by the local utility company and they charge CLL corporate rate about $8.

This is my point about this fake integration. It does not add up just like with the MRC.

This is only small part of the Luke story.

Look at this numbers and make your own conclusion. I know I speak to the deft ears. But maybe some day ,somebody will smart up and drop the marketing skim (integration) and focus on bitumen assets and make CLL pure oilsand growth play which would immediately change our evaluation and SP which would benefit shareholder instead of the management.

Here are the numbers to consider:

Luke netbacks:

2006 ------- $12.6M

2007 --------$12.9M

2008 (est)--$16M Total 3 years= $42M

Luke Capital Expenditure-CAPEX ( for every two producing wells you have to drill one to replaced declining production +expansions).

2006----23M

2007---44M

2008 (from CLL Capex Budget) ---$20 to 25M

3 years total --$90M

Deficit ($48M)



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