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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Connacher cotinues to shine
Connacher Oil and Gas Ltd. Notes Rating Raised To 'BB+' From 'BB' (Recovery Rating: '1')
Primary Credit Analyst:
Jamie Koutsoukis, Toronto (1) 416-507-2552;
jamie_koutsoukis@standardandpoors.com
Secondary Credit Analyst:
Michelle Dathorne, Toronto (1) 416-507-2563;
michelle_dathorne@standardandpoors.com
Publication date: 10-Oct-08, 14:28:02 EST
Reprinted from RatingsDirect


TORONTO (Standard & Poor's) Oct. 10, 2008--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services 
today said it raised its issue-level rating on Calgary, Alta.-based Connacher
Oil and Gas Ltd.'s US$600 million second-lien senior secured eight-year notes
to 'BB+' from 'BB', and revised the recovery rating on this debt to '1' from
'2'. The '1' recovery rating indicates an expectation for very high (90%-100%)
recovery in the event of a payment default. (For the complete recovery
analysis, please see "Connacher Oil and Gas Ltd.'s Recovery Rating Profile,"
to be published on RatingsDirect immediately following this report.)
At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'BB-' long-term
corporate credit rating on the company. The outlook is stable.
The affirmation follows our review of the company's liquidity situation.
"With the announcement that the company will shelve plans for a refinery
expansion and limit capital spending on its existing operations to maintenance
levels, we believe Connacher has the funds available to complete its Algar
project while maintaining its financial profile within the 'BB-' rating
category," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Jamie Koutsoukis. The upgrade
on the notes is the result of the company's reported increased reserves, which
are pledged as security on a second-lien basis on the notes. "The incremental
value attributed to the additional reserves raised our assessment of the
company's enterprise value at default," Ms. Koutsoukis added.
Connacher is an oil and natural gas exploration and production company
whose principal asset is its 100% interest in approximately 98,000 acres of
oil sands leases in the Great Divide and 50% interest in Halfway Creek regions
near Fort McMurray, Alta. Production from Connacher's first pod began during
third-quarter 2007 and should reach 10,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) of bitumen
in late 2008. Connacher also has conventional operations primarily at Battrum,
Sask., and in Marten Creek, Simonette, and Three Hills, Alta., with production
of 3,351 barrels of oil equivalent per day in second-quarter 2008 (ended June
30). The company operates a 9,500 bbl/d refinery in Great Falls, Mont., and
owns about 24% of Petrolifera Petroleum Ltd., which has interests in
Argentina, Peru, and Colombia.
The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Pod I of Connacher's
Great Divide project will reach production at its design capacity by year-end
2008, and internally generated cash flows will meet the company's debt and
sustaining capital expenditure commitments for its operating assets.
Furthermore, the outlook incorporates our expectation that Connacher will
complete the development of its Pod 2 Algar project on schedule without any
material cost increases or any need for significant additional funding. We do
not expect, however, that Connacher's balance sheet will materially improve in
the near-to-medium term as it begins spending on Algar. Should Connacher
encounter pressure on its liquidity due to project cost escalations, or the
company not see increased internal cash flow during the next 12 months as to
reduce total debt to EBITDA below 7.0x, a negative rating action could occur.
Conversely, an outlook revision to positive depends on the company's ability
to significantly reduce its debt, combined with improvements in free cash flow
generation, which is unlikely until Algar is completed and producing.
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