"Now it's a good test to see if DG model will work .Now that oil is gone down a big chunk the refinery must now be in favour to counter the drop in sales of bitumen."
For some unexplained to me reason (drop in the demand?) the refining margin is not going up (as it normally would) with the lower price of oil.
Q4 margins so far are disaster. Some weeks in September were in negative territory (refinery were selling gas below cost). As of now it is higher but much lower the low Q2. This market is crazy.
About importance of WTI at $60 for CLL profitability you refer to?
The only thing I say.... it is totally irrelevant.
What it counts is price of Bitumen sold by CLL. Anybody can go to CLL reports and find the upstream and downstream expenses to see the brake even point.
The last point.
We may see the retesting of the resent SP low at $1.50 to $1.6 this week. It is extremely important to hold this level. If it does not hold here ..... it is scary to think about it.