Re: Third Quarter Predictions
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 04, 2008 10:00AM
Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
You do not have to predict the Q3 numbers. You can start to predict (guess) Q4 numbers because Nov and Dec commodity prices are unknown. As the example:
Sep Avr Bitumen price: $74/bbl, Oct Avr Bitumen price: $46
Sep NG Avr price $5.9 /Gj, Oct Avr NG $6.4/Gj
Q3 is over and based on July, Aug, Sep Average Wighted Prices for Bitumen ,NG and refining numbers plus announced by CLL production numbers you can calculate the Net Cash Flow numbers.
The detail numbers were posted here about one months ago by few posters including spiderman and me.
The Q3 estimates (as oppose to predictions) for Net Cash Flow are in the range of $0.16 to $0.19 per share.
The Net Earnings per share are totally unpredictable due to the creative accounting which can be legally apply for several reason including tax avoidance strategy.
You are right. This will be the best quarterly numbers ever. Possibly we will have to wait another 4 quarters to get as much cash flow. All other producers in the sector reporting the 40% to 60% jump in the cash flow.