Blackriver:

It likely will depend on what Connachers true minimal variable costs are on a BTTW all out basis. And I doubt anybody here knows that number. When it comes to survival, one would be amazed at what becomes possible. The world is in a foot race between its future needs for oil supply and current ability to fund exploration and development. This is partcularly true as current world total demand for oil is still slightly ahead of last year.

The greatest risk to this scenario, is I believe, what happens to the North American automotive industry. If it is allowed to go down, then we are going to see massive unemployment, societal displacement and chaos for the entirety of North America, with a resultant crash in North American oil demand. (30% of world total) The consequences of such a scenario is a vision I would prefer to not even consider. A good time to keep ones powder dry!

Brian