Hi Jurek -

I follow your comments with interest, and appreciate your take on various situations.

If I may, I would quibble about China's rising consumption.

Automobile ownership is trivial in Chinamaybe something like 1/100 or even 1/1000 what you might find in Europe or North America. For this growth to falter, at least one of two causes would have to come in to effect:

The recession would cut the market penetration of new cars. Not likely; for one, the Chinese economy will be the least impacted by the present disaster that we laughingly refer to as the world economy;

or, people would drive significantly less - they hardly drive at all now. A new car in China has nothing to do with communting, or taking long driving holidays. It has to do with occasional convenience such as off-peak chores or weekly shopping, and more significantly, it has to do with face - showing the neighbours that you have arrived as a consumer.

All other consumption of oil - air travel, trucking, heating - are relatively sheltered from increases in prices. This is the nature of the growth of consumption in CHina since I have been going there several times a year for 30 years; this is the pattern I expect to continue.