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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Conference Call Redux

Conference Call Redux

posted on Dec 06, 2008 02:43PM

Seeing as there is a lot of bleak news on a daily basis I have decided to rewrite the Conference Call synopsis that I wrote three weeks ago and correct the errors based on the feedback that was posted. We longs need to feel good about something.



Richard Gusella and Peter Sametz gave out a lot of good information in the Conference Call on November 21 that I was not aware of after reading the Q3 report or the Presentation. Here is what I remember and if I stated something incorrectly please draw it to everyones attention on the board.

1) Connacher recently announced that it has unwound the cross currency swap asset for cash proceeds of $89.1 million dollars to further enhance liquidity. In addition, Connacher has a line of credit of $180 million (Jurek's figures) available that it can draw on.

The debt financing arrangement also permits Connacher to borrow another $300 million in the future if it needs to. Connacher could pursue this additional credit capacity through the banking system or on the debt market where they might be able to raise this money if they can find a source and negotiate a deal by putting up the Montana refinery (MRC), Petrolifera and other assets as collateral. This means that if the price that Connacher gets for its dilbit were to drop below Connacher's production break even point, then Connacher can still make its debt repayments twice yearly in a worse case scenario until the market price for dilbit increases to a profitable level with an improving economy.

2) Connacher is currently producing bitumen from 14 well pairs (the 15th well pair is in the steaming phase). Peter Sametz explained that Connacher will be drilling 2 additional well pairs this winter at the Great Divide. He said that Connacher will have a drilling rig sitting idle for about a month while the land is being cleared for the well pads at Algar therefore rather than have the rig sit idle, they will use it to drill two more wells at Great Divide. He stated that some of the existing well pairs at Great Divide are producing 1300 bbs/d of bitumen while some wells are producing 500 bbs/d . The additional well pairs will be drilled next to the well pair producing 1300 bbs\d of bitumen as it's location is in the optimum position in the steam chamber. Bottom line = Connacher will make a profit by increasing the amount of bitumen produced for sale on the market during this economic downturn.

3) Connacher will install more ESP's (electric submersible pumps) in the existing underground well pairs to improve the SOR. The SOR at Connacher generally is 3.0:1 however some wells have an SOR of 2.7:1 or 2.8:1 . By reducing the SOR Connacher has been able to burn less natural gas for every barrel of bitumen produced which means that there will be a surplus of steam that can be used by the 2 new well pairs being drilled at Great Divide to produce more bitumen for sale. Bottom line = Connacher will use the same amount of gas at present to produce increased bitumen production for sale on the market during this economic downturn.

4) In terms of Connacher's conventional gas production at Martin Creek Connacher will not have to drill any more natural gas wells this winter because apparently it drilled a number of gas wells last winter that were capped. Connacher will go back to Martin Creek when the ground feezes this winter and connect these wells into the pipeline. Some of these wells are prolific and the amount of new gas hooked up this winter will be greater than the gas depleated over the last year so Connacher will end up with an additional supply of natural gas surplus to their needs which they will sell on the market for a profit. Bottom line = more natural gas for sale on the market during this economic downturn.

5) Algar is being constructed originally for 10,000 bbs/d but the design of the project is expandable to 20,000 -25,000 bbs/d. There is apparently a great deal of high quality bitumen in the ground between the Great Divide Project and the Algar Project that is easily accessible for production by building satellite pads.

6) The cogeneration plant will be constructed this winter for $30 million ($8 million in Connacher's 2008 CAPEX budget and $22 million in the 2009 budget) , and will be a subsidiary of Connacher Oil and Gas, to provide electricity for Algar and back up for Great Divide and it will be completed way before Algar is completed. 2Crude stated that it will be a natural gas driven project that produces steam to drive a turbine to produce electricity. The surplus electricity will be sold into the Alberta energy grid for a profit while Algar is being built as well as the energy surplus to Algar's needs after it has been constructed will continue to be sold. Bottom line = more profit for Connacher in terms of increased cash flow during this economic downturn.

7) The Montana Refinery expansion is off during this economic downturn as well as some other work that was to be done at the refinery. However, since the price of the oil feedstock for the refinery has decreased, MRC has been profitable in September and October so far due as well to higher prices during this time for selling Asphalt and other bi-products. The turn around for the Montana Refinery will take place in September 2009. Bottom line = increased profits to add to Connacher's cash flow during this economic downturn.

8) In terms of building a pipeline none will be built until Algar is producing bitumen. Connacher can have a pipeline company build a pipeline at the pipeline company's expense and Connacher will then pay the pipeline a tariff for every barrel of dilbit sent through the pipeline. I owned Bulldog Resources in the past and they were charged a tarrif and when the tariff had paid for the pipeline over 2-3 years the pipeline company then turned the pipeline over to Bulldog who would then own it and be responsible for its maintenance. Maybe Connacher will work out such a deal so Connacher does not have to pay for a pipeline. Anyway, the pipeline is off in the future.

9) Connacher completed most of the environmental work and studies last winter while preparing for the Algar permit and they have continued their ongoing environmental assessment to date that is needed for their application for a further 20,000 to 30,000 barrel permit in the EIA (slide 17 November Presentation) and this will probably be submitted in the next month or two to the ERCB.

I feel much more relieved after listening to the Conference Call in terms of Connacher's present situation vis a vis this economic downturn which isn't going to go away in the near future. Richard Gusella and his team have analyzed the situation and have directed everything within their power as you can see to produce increased cash flow during this difficult economic time. When the price they get for dilbit drops, the way around it is to increase production, sell refinery products for a higher netback, produce more natural gas for sale and sell electricity into the Alberta power grid.

If anyone else has anything to add please do. Corrections are also necessary if I have made any mistakes.



Cheers; Scott


Dec 06, 2008 03:38PM
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