Re: Slide 6 Summary
in response to
by
posted on
Dec 31, 2008 05:15AM
Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
Long time shareholder and holding. I've been a quiet daily visitor here since the start. I'm impressed with the civility and knowledge shared. I've always wondered what happened to XIII and Kirkdsmeeton who I read daily. I enjoy sharky and 2Crude (even at Stockhouse). A great group!
Now for goingsolo (I'm not fond of capital letters....)
Looking at Slide 6, and Notes to Dec 31st, 2007 Financials, the 150 and 50 M lines of credit are available (other than a 1.8M Letter of Credit issued, Note 9, "Revolving Credit Facilities"). Please don't confuse Balance Sheet Analysis with Liquidity Analysis. As a shareholder, I found the Dec 23rd press release amazing. It presented a brief synopsis of current and future cash requirements and liquidity. The timing was also interesting because management could have easily waited and deferred comment until the Dec 31st, 2008 F/S were released, as opposed to Dec 12th.
Outside of a minor date error on Slide 6 (should read "Spent as Dec 12th, 2008", and not 2009), the 186 M required for Algar is currently available and sitting within the limits of the 200M credit facility, In addition, Connacher shows that the Algar project, even after completed, leaves 14 M available - clearly indicating that Connacher won't need the full 200M to complete Algar.
With regards to interest payments, Slide 6 shows the 2008 and 2009 interest payments paid in full. You are correct with concerns of the 2010 interest payments, at the end of 2009 , Connacher will not have the 30-35M required for the June 15th 2010 interest payment) but you also discount to nil any operating income between Jan-May, 2010, with Algar online sometime in Q2 2010 (only my opinion). It appears, there should be enough operating cashflow in early 2010 to maintain all required interest payments for the year.
What the liquidity analysis cannot show with any degree of certainty is the following:
1) Cost over-runs at Algar (maybe built-in to the 345M Total Cost? )
2) With reduced capacity, the assumption is Connancher will not have an Operating Deficit for 2008 and 2009 that will require cash "top-up".
3) Stable bitumen average price.
You could develop your own "what if's" and assumptions for 2009 (the above three are mine) the challenge for Connacher will be how to limit all unknown variables to the remaining 14M available on their line of credit.......
Happy New Year All and the Best of Health !
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