The current resurgence in oil, is in large part due to the current conflict in the middle east. Unless other major oil producers initiate similar conflicts, it is unlikely that the upward impetus for oil will survive. If such does however occur, I would look to Russia to be the source. Russia is getting killed economically at present economically as so much of their economy is oil and gas export dependent and would benefit significantly from such a conflict. This is a dangerous time in international relations and may well intensify over the coming months as a new US leader soon to be inaugurated will likely be tested.

Brian