Hi Sharky. From the interview with Richard Gusella on BNN I didn't come away with any idea about what he thinks will happen with the price of oil. He only mentioned in passing that if the price of oil went down to $25.00 as an example that Connacher would be forced to cut back production again in the future at POD 1. He only said this as an extreme example. He appears to be taking a conservative approach to viewing an improving economy. I was left with an impression of this only. He never specifically came out and said this.
As for OPEC I wouldn't hold my breath. All told it's members have pledged to reduce production by 4 million barrels per day adding the cutback promises from their last two meetings and some of its members as usual are "cheating" and not fulfilling their obligations to honour their pledges to cut back which is typical. Some members have not cut production so what can you do? Only Saudi Arabia has enough supply to make a large impact on the market and even then with a huge supply glut today in the world OPEC will need to cut oil production again next month. The question is are the present cuts by OPEC responsible for keeping oil above $40.00 today? I don't know. I thought that Saudia Arabia and OPEC felt that $70.00 was a fair price for their oil. They probably also felt that the cuts that they pledged to make to date already would have returned oil to $70.00 a barrel.
Cheers; Scott