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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: S&P cuts Connacher to 'B', may cut further

S&P cuts Connacher to 'B', may cut further

posted on Feb 13, 2009 07:15AM

watch out below... :( why they remember just now? is it really worth listening to these analysts and credit rating agencies that helped create this mess in the first place?!?!?!



Feb 13 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today said it lowered its
long-term corporate credit rating on Calgary, Alta.-based Connacher Oil and Gas
Ltd. (CLL.TO) two notches to 'B' from 'BB-' and its secured debt rating on
Connacher's US$600 million secured second lien notes to 'BB-' from 'BB+',
following a review of the company's current and prospective business risk and
financial risk profiles. The ratings remain on CreditWatch with negative
implications, where they were placed Dec. 15, 2008. The recovery rating of '1'
on the secured debt is unchanged.

 "Our decision to lower the ratings on Connacher reflects the company's
inability to generate positive free operating cash flow at current oil prices
after servicing its large interest obligations and funding it capital program;
and concerns with the rate at which available cash and liquidity will be
depleted to sustain operations," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Jamie
Koutsoukis. "Furthermore, with construction on the company's Algar project on
hold, and its using its available funds to support operations, it will support
existing debt with half the expected production; and Connacher's leverage is
aggressive for the 'B' rating," Ms. Koutsoukis added.
 We believe that the company's business risk profile, which we assess to be
stronger than the 'B' rating, supports the rating on the company. Connacher
remains on CreditWatch as we have concerns regarding the covenants in its
existing credit facility and, specifically the requirement that its
consolidated interest coverage ratio be no less than 1.5x beginning March
2009.
 In our opinion, the ratings on Connacher reflect the company's relatively
high leverage, its negative free cash flow at current oil prices due to large
interest obligations, and the sensitivity of its oil sands project's
profitability to unscheduled shutdowns and input pricing volatility. Somewhat
mitigating these weaknesses, in our view, are the above-average internal
reserve replacement potential associated with its oil sands leases; the
expected stable production profile; the negligible finding costs associated
with oil sands extraction; and a reduced exposure to heavy oil differentials,
diluent prices, and natural gas costs associated with the company's wholly
owned U.S. refinery and Canadian conventional upstream operations.
 We will resolve the CreditWatch once we have certainty regarding
Connacher's course of action in dealing with the potential covenant violation
on its credit facility. Should the company resolve the covenant issue and
maintain what we view as adequate liquidity, we will keep the corporate credit
rating at the 'B' level.
 Complete ratings information is available to RatingsDirect subscribers at
www.ratingsdirect.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found
on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com; select your
preferred country or region, then Ratings in the left navigation bar, followed
by Find a Rating.
Primary Credit Analyst: Jamie Koutsoukis, Toronto (1) 416-507-2552;
jamie_koutsoukis@standardandpoors.com
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