Very sensible observation about 2009/10 Oil prices.

Personally I have no idea in this regard. Most of the other estimates I have seen based on the OPEC cuts and dropping demand are $45 in 2009 and $50 to $55 in 2010.

One thing I do not understand is way on the earth the GDP growth in China for the next few years would increase the price of Oil.

It is estimated that due to the structure of Chinese economy and their long term energy policy they will not need one more barrel of oil for the next 8 to 10 years.

Their electricity generation system is dramatically switching form OIL to Coal and nuclear source which will more then offset the small by our standard use of OIL by transportation sector.

In US and Europe over 70% consumption of oil is refine for gasoline. In China only 18%. 60% is generating the electricity.

Over the next 8 years China is adding 572 coal-fired power Plants and 50 nuclear reactors which dramatically reduces the use of Oil in this sector.

Obviously they think long term and they are "shopping" on the OIL market as we speak to protect their future supply.

But i think this is for the Off Topic Forum.