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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: PDP
PDP

Mar 05, 2009 05:54AM

Mar 05, 2009 06:11AM

Re: PDP

in response to by
posted on Mar 05, 2009 06:34AM

I don't see Connacher selling their PDP shares unless the shares appreciate significantly in value from where they are now. Petrolifera shares are cheaper now then their initial IPO. What Petrolifera is going through now is what Connacher went through years ago. Those of you who have held Connacher shares a long time remember about four years ago (before Connacher bought the land at the Great Divide) when Connacher was predominantly a gas company. Connacher drilled a lot of shallow gas wells and the fracing was done too late in the year and Connacher had trouble hooking up the gas wells to the pipeline. A compressor blew out and the gas froze in the pipeline, and Connacher started getting sand in the gas. So Connacher spent money trying to fix the sand in the gas problem and then cut their losses and sold off the gas producing land and wells which were causing the problems. Connacher re-evaluated their position and decided to go in a different direction and the next move was to go into the bitumen business and use the proceeds of the sale of the gas wells to buy the land at the Great Divide. I see PDP going through the same process at present (reconstituting itself). We all know that it is hard to make a profit in Argentina as the Argentine government has a cap on what oil can be sold for in Argentina. Also, the Puesto Morales and Rinconada fields are old oil fields that were sold off to Connacher originally by a multimational oil company that had already sucked out a lot of the oil from a different strata than Petrolifera ended up getting their oil from. These oilfields are in decline. The original oil wells Petrolifera drilled were impressive but after a year or two of production they went into decline and a waterflood project was brought in which has turned the decline around a bit but I think the writing is on the wall. Petrolifera want's out of Argentina as is isn't that profitable anymore. So Columbia and especially Peru are the great hopes. Petrolifera needs to get out of Argentina and invest the cash in Columbia first, and have success in Columbia to finance it's drilling in Peru which is elephant country. So I don't see Connacher selling its shares in Petrolifera as the original object of making money in South America through Connacher's Petrolifera shares has not been realized yet. Connacher will sell the Petrolifera shares only if 1) Connacher is in desperate financial trouble a year from now; 2) If Petrolifera shares go way up due to outrageous success in Columbia or Peru. IMHO.



Best Wishes; Scott


Mar 05, 2009 07:19AM

Mar 05, 2009 08:01AM
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