First of all, I am not the 'chosen one" like you suggest and "understand how the bigger picture works". Sometimes I can pickup the warning signal in advance.

As you know I try to share these "red flags" with board with mixed results. If I could follow my own advice I would not be here. Unfortunately the divorce is always difficult and costly.

Last time I answer the same question in OCT/2008:

http://agoracom.com/ir/Connacher/for...

Few things have change since. One of the question ask on the Q3 CLL Conference Call reviled to me that CLL will default or loose the $200M credit line which would trigger the downgrades.

I expressed my concern on the board and try to sell my Convertible Debentures. I manage to sell half before they drop bellow $60 and now below $40. Very, very low liquidity on this one. Remaining CLL.DB.A is less then 10% of my holdings.

CLL still has some cash on hand for 2 more 2009 interest payments for debenture and Note holders. They do not have money to complete the Algar. Something has to happen here.

As reported yesterday the OIL storages are at 16 years high. China become the net exported of gasoline in Q1/2009. I agree with Brian that the Oil price recovery will be very slow and the CLL hedges are offsetting any gains in bitumen price.

I will wait for June payment on convertibles and see were the oil price will go and what new financing they will arrange. If there is none, I will take the loses and move on.

PS. Some posters here are promoting so call averaging down strategy. Using this strategy on risky stocks is very bad idea. There is always a good reason for the SP going down.

Every FP or book will tell you that much more successful strategy is averaging up on raising stocks with good fundamentals.