My guess is that shares will be priced at $1.50, and there won't be more than 60 million issued. An extra $90m in equity may be the reassurance that bankers need to come up with the rest of the money in a loan. Once the dust settles, people will suddenly realize that the price of oil is suitable for Algar to proceed and the money will be there, and then suddenly Connacher will jump back up to $2+.

My other prediction is that this issue is already fully subscribed, and won't be available to the public. So in a month or two, the groups that were able to corner this issue will have suddenly realized a huge increase already.

Another possibility is the thought of preferred shares. What about an issue of 75 million preferred shares at $3 each? Would there be any interest? I bet there would. It could be structured that the shares remain more valuable than the common. Maybe a harder sell though. But then again, Gusella is always full of surprises.

This is all just idle speculation, of course.