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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: Stop Loss

May 31, 2009 09:15AM
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May 31, 2009 09:37AM

May 31, 2009 11:46AM
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May 31, 2009 12:26PM

Re: Stop Loss

in response to by
posted on May 31, 2009 01:48PM

Stop loss is a dangerous thing.Many times the MM's just bring down the sp to collect all the stop losses and then sp started to rise again.

I was thinking why they took .9 as target price.Maybe just to be sure the price is low enough to attract investors so they can collect the needed money.

I'm not so sure the price wil drop to much.

I also didn't like latest action but considering all the other options maybe no other choice.But I stick with my earlier statement they made not the good decissions in 2008.If they had Algar put on hold then we didn't have the financing trouble and debt issue.They went for the financing deal in market conditions which were by then very bad.

I hope this time they don't miss the train again.First they missed the spike in oil because pod 1 was to late at 10.000 bpd.I admit they built it in the right way but market conditiions turned when they finished pod 1.If they were 1 year before at 10.000 bpd they could collect a good cash position.

But to me they panicked when oil went to 35 and took the risk to curtail production and a month later they announced they would ramp up again.

I still believe the company could do well IF oil stays at a decent level and the economy will recover.But I doubt if we wil see a big jump on activity in the economy coming years.Jobless rate will stay high IMO for many years .Students which will leave school this year and next will face problems to get a nice and well paid job .Same in Europe.Automotive sector which was a good sector for working will decline and some companies will disappear together with the related companies .So those who can hold their job will do well be I'm afraid times will never be the same as it was before.The recovery as I hear will take longer then most predicted before.

Oil can indeed move up again but that will create inflation and higher prices.

I'm almost sure most of us over the 50 years old have seen the best in stock markets I guess.

So we in CLl can only hope if they can go on with Algar that oil prices stays above their target level and not drop again when Algar is finished for what ever reason or we missed the train again.

MNGMt has done a good job on building and ramp up pod 1 but IMO they did the wrong decissions to finish Algar to quick and loading us with a huge debt in market conditions which by then were very cloudy.So now a target price at .90?

Is the reason to take such a low price only to attract buyers to be sure again they can collect enough to go on?Is 0.90 the real value of CLL woth MRC ,POD 1 ,conventional oil and LUke together?



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