Rising oil prices and falling costs are raising optimism that billions of dollars worth of Alberta oilsands projects will come off the shelf -- but no one is willing to predict when, or who will be the next to announce.

On Monday, Imperial Oil Ltd. confirmed its $8-billion, 110,000-barrel-per-day Kearl oilsands mine 70 kilometres north of Fort McMurray will proceed, adding that it figures it has shaved between $500 million and $1 billion off what it would have cost last summer.

On Wednesday, benchmark light crude oil rose $1 to close at $63.45 US per barrel, after Saudi Arabia's oil minister said prices are likely to reach $75 by the end of the year. Oil has traded below $34 this year after hitting a record $147 last summer.

Phil Skolnick, a principal with Genuity Capital Markets in Calgary, said falling costs and stronger prices mean things are looking up for oilsands but it's hard to say which of more than a dozen halted projects will be reactivated first.

A key factor is the pending merger between Suncor Energy Inc. and Petro-Canada, to be voted on by shareholders next week.

"It's a tough one. It could be Suncor, once the Petro-Canada deal is done, or it could be Canadian Natural [Resources Ltd.]," he said.

"Or, because with Fort Hills, Petro-Canada already said costs are down, I guess maybe they are really the first one with an actual number."

He said it seems unlikely Suncor/Petro-Canada would go ahead with both the former's $20-billion Voyageur expansion, into which it has already sunk $7 billion, and the latter's 60-per-cent owned Fort Hills mine. It said recently Fort Hills will cost $10 billion to build (although UTS Energy Corp., with a 20-per-cent stake, said later it may cost only $8 billion.)

CNRL has postponed its 45,000-bpd Kirby in situ project and the 100,000-bpd expansion of its Horizon mine.

William Lee, an analyst for CIBC World Markets, said he doesn't think any of the cancelled projects will be green-lighted in 2009.

"The earliest I can see is probably 2010. I don't think anything major will be sanctioned other than Kearl."

He said the price needed to justify oilsands projects is complicated. While oil prices have strengthened, the Canadian dollar has, too, to a six-month high against the American dollar, and that works against profitability.

Meanwhile, the differential between heavy oil and light oil prices is more important than the oft-quoted New York light oil price, he said.

Lee and Tristone Capital analyst Chris Felton disagreed on what light oil price Imperial's project needs to deliver a return, with Lee suggesting $50 US was the low mark and Felton saying in a note a 10 per cent return would likely require oil prices of over $70, unless the company succeeds in further cutting costs.

Smaller players have been taking advantage of a thaw in financial markets.

Two weeks ago, early stage company Oilsands Quest Inc. raised $29.8 million US through the sale of warrants and, on Wednesday, oilsands producer Connacher Oil and Gas Ltd. announced it will earn $150 million through an underwritten issue of shares at 90 cents each, with a 15 per cent over-allotment possible when it closes June 5.

The price is a 13-per-cent discount to the Tuesday closing price of $1.04 for Connacher, which owns the 10,000-bpd Great Divide in situ project.

"It's a very tough market out there," said president and chief executive Dick Gusella. "At a little higher price, we might not have sold anything."

Great Divide is ramping up after being scaled back due to low oil prices at the end of 2008 but a $350-million second phase, called Algar, is still on hold.

Gusella said going ahead with Algar depends on the company's ability to replace an unused credit facility it cancelled in the first quarter, one good for $150 million Cdn and $50 million US.

"With recovery in the capital markets you're seeing more enthusiasm," said Glen Schmidt, chairman of the In Situ Oil Sands Alliance, a group that represents non-mining oilsands developers.

"People will continue to be cautious," he said. "Clearly Exxon/Esso are in a league of their own using cash from their balance sheet to advance their project. They have a greater capacity to manager those time frames."

Schmidt is also president and chief executive of private Laricina Energy Ltd., a company with two proposed in situ oilsands projects, potentially producing 350,000 to 400,000 barrels per day from a four-billion-barrel resource.

He said progress has been slowed. The company expects to have about $60 million in capital left at the end of the year and will have to go to the market next year to refuel.