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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: 2 Factors

2 Factors

posted on Jun 13, 2009 04:00PM

Two factors can have a big influence on Connacher's share price in the near future (besides the rising price of oil). The first will occur in January when the SEC in the United States (I'm pretty sure it's the SEC) perfmits oilsands producers to book their bitumen reserves in the same way that conventional oil and gas producers do. At present bitumen reserves for oilsands producers cannot be counted towards the company's value. The second factor which will immediatley influence Connacher's share price will occur when Connacher conducts a new core hole drilling program to identify more bitumen reserves. Two winters ago when Connacher drilled 1,200 core holes and identified new bitumen reserves, the share price doubled soon after the core holes were completed and GLJ came out with an updated reserve evaluation. Connacher has purposely only drilled enough core samples to satisfy it's bitumen needs for the Great Divide and Algar mainly to help them get loans and credit. Personally, I think that they have drilled a very conservative number of core holes in the past because they did not want a hostile company to come in and take them out, which would have possibly happened if they had drilled a fantastic number of core holes and had proven up vast bitumen reserves. UTS and other oilsands companies have taken the opposite approach. In the early corporate life of these companies they drilled a very large number of core holes to prove up vast bitumen reserves first, and then they used the potential of their vast identified reserves to raise money. As I have said, if you do that first you run an incredible risk of someone buying out your company just to acquire it's reserves. Now that Connacher has a very substantial debt that will scare off any company looking to buy them out, Connacher can now drill and prove up more reserves this winter and the share price will grow accordingly.


Best Wishes; Scott

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