Q2 is a history and as always some shareholders are getting anxious or exited about the CLL numbers. Here is something to chew on. Good luck, JUREK.

OILSAND (Bitumen)

Disappointing Q2. It is almost 2 years since the initial steaming took place and the POD1 production is stuck under the 8000bbl/d. Millions of dollars spend on additional wells and the pumps (someone forgot to check the pump max temp specification before installing them in the wells). Projected future average production at 9500 bbl/d as stated recently is disappointed as well.

Bitumen average prices in Q2 were $44 to $46 /bbl. Average POD1 production in Q2 should be just under the 7000 bbl/d. As you know in Q1 CLL enter into a six months contract on dilbit delivery at much lower prices then average Q2 prices.

Unfortunately bad WTI hedges (do not confuse this with dilbit contract) at average $48 bbl for 5000 bbl/d and maintenance CAPEX will offset the gains from the bitumen sale.

Conventional (NG + Crude Oil)

Crude oil production should bring $2.5 millions in netbacks.

Luke NG production will at best brake even with potential loses of $1 million. Average Alberta spot price for the Q2 was about $3.3 GJ ($5.6 in Q1). As everyone on this board knows by now CLL does not use their own NG at POD1.

Upstream

Q2 industry average crack spread was about $10 (for some reason MRC previously reported cracks were at list 20 to 30% lower then industry average). Crack dropped this month to $7.2 due to excessive gasoline inventories for this time of the year.

It is hard to say what the Holly Grail (asphalt ) will bring because CLL never reported the netbacks for asphalt.

My best est is $7 to $10 million in netbacks form MRC which should pay for September turnaround.

PDP

PDP brings only 9 cents to CLL NAVPS and does not contribute to CLL cash flow and as such is not much relevant to CLL performance.

In balance

In Q2 CLL will have negative free cash flow and money received from new shareholders will be use to cover the interest payment which increased to about $100 millions annually. Operational cash flow should be about 5 cents /share. As you all know CLL just double the number of outstanding shares so the profit and NAVPS drop in half as a result of this exercise.