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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: Poor Production
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Jul 14, 2009 02:47PM

There are some interesting questions in this discussion, and this may be one decision that could've been done differently, again in hindsight ...

"You're making your argument based on several assumptions. 1- that production levels will take a long time to again reach 10k, if ever. 2- That slowing production hurts the reservoir in some way. 3- The oil is magically going to disappear if it's not pumped out. Now you do the math.. How much money does CLL lose by selling 1.1 million barrels in the mid $30's as opposed to much higher prices in the future..I look at it as money in the bank, every barrel saved and sold at a higher price is a bonus."

How much money were we actually losing? Hard to say I think, as it's difficult to pin down the differential. With WTI at $40, mightn't put bitumen netbacks at $20, or -$5 per barrel? At 10kbpd we'd have lost $50k per day, $1.5M per month? In hindsight that doesn't seem as bad as the damage done to Pod 1 production, but then who knew how long the prices would remain so soft, or how low prices were going to go? Nobody of course ... thank God the Arabs stepped in to curtail production, and the last I heard there was still a glut of gasoline on the market.

Another good frustration raised is that hedges weren't put into place when oil was so high. Lessons learned I guess. We'll see where prices are at in August, if some of the hedges are rolled over, hopefully into higher ones.


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