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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: An i??nteresting article

An i??nteresting article

posted on Jul 22, 2009 03:50PM

got this from National Post,looks like Connachers profits should be on the rise??

The benchmark for heavy oil pricing in Western Canada is the Western Canadian Select Blend or WCSB stream formed through the co-operation of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ/TSX), EnCana Corp. (ECA/TSX), Petro-Canada (PCA/TSX) and Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM/TSX). A combination of various heavy oil and bitumen streams, as well as blendstocks such as condensate and synthetic crude oil, it has become a desirable crude source for many refiners.

Overall pricing for WCSB has averaged 70% (equal to a 30% differential) of WTI, the global benchmark for light crude prices. But driven by growing acceptance of the heavier crude stream, including its reliability in terms of quality, and its scale in terms of availability, that pricing gap has closed significantly of late, with differentials reaching the low teens in recent weeks.

Earlier this month, Scotia Capital Markets reduced its forecast for heavy oil differentials from 25% to 17.5% in 2009, from 30% to 20% in 2010, and from 30% to 25% in the long term.

For instance, with light crude trading at roughly US$60, heavy oil would be trading closer to US$50, as opposed to US$45 previously.

Scotia foresees a secular shift in heavy oil differentials for several reasons. First, lower-than-anticipated oil sands production and the slated completion of heavy oil pipelines to the United States are both expected to increase pipeline capacity for Canadian heavy oil exports. Second, U. S. Midwest refineries have increased capability to digest heavier blends.

"The potential access to complex Gulf Coast refineries (through new pipeline projects) for Canadian heavy oil is expected to reduce the discount paid for Canadian heavy [oil] relative to Mexican and Venezuelan benchmarks," Scotia wrote. "In addition, decreasing supply from Mexico and Venezuela is expected to create ample spare capacity in Gulf Coast refiners to accommodate Canadian volumes."

Charles Marleau, portfolio manager at Palos Capital Management in Montreal, says investors in the energy sector who have not run for cover as oil prices have swooned this past week, should leave their money in [producers] of heavy oil because of its favourable price differential with light crude.

"I would go with anything that is heavy," he said.

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