Do you think Dondon your annalist is better then this one?

This is from:

PIVOTAL EVENTS
THURSDAY, AUGUST 6, 2009
BOB HOYE
PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS COMMENTS FOR ENERGY AND METAL PRODUCERS

Energy: Our July 22 edition noted crude's decline from 73.9 and advised covering
shorts. Our gentle nature was looking for rising, but choppy action well into September.
However, the rush to get in has been outstanding in driving the price to 72.4 earlier today.

While levitating the spirits of the "Peak-Oil" Crowd, this is another too-much-too soon move. Perhaps most of the possible move into September has been accomplished. In which case, a choppy trading range could lead to a severe slump in energy prices later in the year.

The fabulous asset inflations that climaxed in 1873 included disaster stories about
running out of coal. The leading economist, Stanley Jevons, had a personal revelation that the world was going to run out of coal and civilization would collapse. His book,

"The Coal Question" was the equivalent of today's fantasies about "Peak Oil".
Sadly, "Peak Coal" was soon assigned to the dustbin of history as the Great Depression of 1873 to 1895 prompted a couple of generations of intellectuals fantasized about how it could have been avoided or ameliorated.

Economists more ambitious of their posterity
worked on recommending protectionism to all too susceptible governments.
Believe it or not, whale oil was the equivalent of crude oil as it played an important part
in illumination, cosmetics and various chemicals. In gold terms the price fell to around 20
percent of the high in the 1860s.

By the same measure (relative to gold) crude could fall to around 25 percent of its high.
That would be on annual averages.
In the meantime, it is worth adding that both "Peak Coal" and "Peak Oil" hysterias were based upon very detailed supply/demand analysis. Jevons used extensive data on known coal reserves to a mining depth of 4000 feet.

Oil reserve calculations on the Peak story have been painstakingly detailed and widely circulated. But no matter how ardent the beliefs, in 2008 crude's price relative to gold plunged to a third of the high.
That was from June to December, which suggests that the equivalent or even worse could be accomplished over the course of a couple of recessions, within a lengthy post-bubble contraction.

This advisory service got its start in the 1970s by providing analysis of metal prices and
credit markets to a couple of the big mining companies. One of them dedicated a
considerable amount of time and resources to cracking the problem of the business cycle and metal prices.

The conclusions were that historical examples provided the most
reliable guidance and that SUPPLY/DEMAND analysis was impractical.

The best use of fundamental analysis about mine openings and depletions; monsoons and souks, is to provide executives with something to talk about at their clubs.