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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: cll mentioned as possible takeover target on bnn

believe in CLL;

My response to your questions and statements follows:

First you stated that "The dilution made killed cll for good". Personally I do not agree with this statement. Once Connacher completes Algar its combined bitumen production and decreasing production costs will see Connacher reaping many millions of dollars of profit each month. If oil stays above US $70 WTI and the Canadian dollar stays high this time next year and there appears to be every indication that this will be so according to Henry Groppe, Jeff Rubin et al., Connacher will not only have enough to pay off the interest on the debt but Connacher should be able to start building up a huge cash reserve. With that cash reserve Connacher will be able to fund the EIA expansion when permission is granted by the Alberta Government in 2011. In the mean time, Connacher can also buy up more of the bonds that it issued if some become available at a cheap rate (just as Connacher did in Q2) in order to reduce a little of it's debt going forward. Connacher shares will attract a lot of interest to appreciate at this time based on its increased cash flow, highly reduced risk profile, reduced production costs, increased bitumen production and cash reserves.

You stated: "Now everything depends on luck: oil to say abobe 70, pdp to do good." Connacher's share price is tied to the price of oil. The presentation for Summer/Fall states 98% of Connacher's production is tied to bitumen. This means the value of Connacher's shares is tied to the price of oil. The world price goes up a great deal and Connacher's share price will go up a great deal. The world share price goes down a lot and Connacher's share price will go down a lot. The same applies to the Canadian dollar which is a Petro dollar and has gone up and down with the price of oil over the last couple of years. You call this luck......to me it's oil market forces. PDP currently adds nothing to Connacher's share price. PDP is in a slightly different situation because Argentina regulates the price that PDP gets for its oil and natural gas. PDP cant's get more than I think it was $45 or $46 a barrel for its oil in Argentina due to Argentina's domestic policy.

"Even if algar is success and oil stays above 70, by next yr this time cll will still be less than too. too many shares and high debt? So my friends scott and rebels what do u think the so wll be hypothetically if algar is success oil stays above 70 and we get approval for expanding for both pod 1 and algar??" I believe that I already answered this question. Based on a stable oil price above US$70 WTI, doubled production, lower SOR's and production costs, expanded booked reserves (in January 2010 when the rules change for booking bitumen reserves in the USA), an increased cashflow and the possibility or buying back and reducing the bond debt, Connacher's share price will appreciate. With approval coming for the expansion this will increase interest in Connacher's shares by retail and institutional investors which should also make the share price appreciate. It will also attract a lot of short sellers who we have seen over the last 7 years have manipulated the share price up and down along the way. Once the cash flow increases with increased production Connacher could start paying off the debt but Dick Gusella said that they don't have to pay it off until 2012 etc. and at that point he says they should be able to renegotiate it at any rate so there is no need to start paying off the debt principal until they have to (as it keeps takeovers away).

"also how about meging pdp and cll? if this would happen, how many shares would cll holders get, am not saying pdp takes over cll, i am saying pdp and cll merging for synergy,k combined reserves combined debt? if that would happen then we would have a compnay in par with talisman even better as montan maybe expanded. So oil sands, refining and sweeter oild with cheaper price to get it out and sell it"

Personally I am against Connacher merging with PDP at this point. Connacher originally cut PDP loose because it could not afford to finance PDP's high exploration costs. Nothing has changed here. PDP is a separate company and raises it's own capital on the markets. There would be no advantage for Connacher to merge with PDP today. PDP's debt I believe was around $140 million where as Connacher's debt is just over $1 billion not including the interest. Combining PDP and CLL would be nowhere near the size of Talisman. Talisman's cash flow for Q2 was $900 million dollars and its world wide production averaged 424,000 boe/day. Connacher is just a little company compared to Talisman. It is not in the same league. If Connacher were to merge with PDP Connacher's shareholders would get no shares each (Connachers total number of shares would increase by over another 100 million now). In my opinion Connacher should distribute it's shares in PDP free to all Connacher shareholders who have held Connacher over the last two years. However, nobody on this board has agreed with my thesis on this.

Best Wishes; Scott

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