I'm not very good with the numbers. I'll take a swing and see how many people come back telling me how badly off base I am. At least it would be a good way to learn.

Connacher's production costs have been coming way down, but the last time we seemed to get pretty close we were breaking even around $25/bbl bitumen. These prices are very difficult to pin down. Lately the differential was narrowing, so possibly (guessing) within $10 of WTI would put prices at $60/bbl? $60 selling cost - $25 production costs would be $35/bbl profit. Then multiply that by 20,000 bbl/day = $700k/day profit. I don't know how many days per year are counted towards production. For example 325 would be $225M and change of profit per year. Plus the plan is to bring more production online by 2015 ... possibly (hopefully conservatively) double the numbers.

Then subtract whatever the interest payments are per year until 2012 or whenever principal payments begin coming due. I should know these numbers but don't off the top of my head, I'm sure they're in the financials somewhere. Let me know if you find them.

Corrections would be appreciated as part of a learning experience.

-bbq