Rebels,

Trust me that I am not naive enough to think that there is no manipulation of not only CLL but pretty much most stocks on the TSX. I just find it hard to believe that one person or a few on a board such as this can move the market in volumes as it has been. We are talking millions of shares. Now do I believe that the big players ran the stock up on the AOS realease and profited out, yup. But it is market momentum that caused the day rally and subsequent drop and that is what the big players have on their side as they can move volumes sufficient enough to get attention.

As you state Jurek's posts are very accurate which makes them impossible to ignore. As far as where he gets his info well either he's a CLL insider or he does his due dilligence very well. Connacher did give some updates about volumes at Pod1 and since this is really the revenue driver it isn't unheard of to do some quick calculations and take a stab at their cashflow.

As I stated to bbq the other day one could easily make a spreadsheet that could forecast future revenue and cashflow from ther information given in the presentation and their f/s. The problem is that you are depending on too many variables to stay as they are such as oil price, production at Pod1 increasing, Algar up on time, G&A costs staying static and so on. Really you are rolling dice on forecasting anything out more than the next quarter. The shorter the term of your forecast the more likely it will be accurate as the chances are your variables won't fluctuate as much.

This is not meant as a negative but only reality as my background is in accounting and know the numbers well. Like I said if things go as planned and oil sticks close to or higher than $70 Connacher should have sufficient cashflow to meet debt obligations but I certainly do not have a crystal ball and can't see what will happen in the future. They don't have a lot of margin for error.

Dootin