Thanks Wetcoaster for very good post and very challenging question.

If I may add to your calculations I would reconsider the cash flow multiples you use in your post. The average of 80 some P&E juniors in Canadian oil and gas sector were trading at 4.8 multiples. See Q2 results at:

http://iq.bmir.com/iq/iQ-2009-Q2-web.pdf

Another thing to consider is how the Pros are evaluating the oilsand company and what their targets are based on.

There are 5 (as far as I know) annalists covering CLL. Most of them if not all are setting their targets based on 5 to 30% discount to the NAVPS (risk factor). The latest (Sep 2009) CLL estimates of NAVPS are :

by RJ CLL NAVPS $1.81 Target at $1.75

by Scotia Capital CLL NAVPS $1.78 Target $1.25

Some people look at the charts or support/resistance level. I frequently check the Points &Figure charts for the support and the resistance level.

The problem with the CLL charts is that we have had a massive dilution recently and the previous history shown on the charts is not reliable especially on the resistance level. Support level at 96 cents looks very good.

IMHO it is hard to believe that the CLL SP will move above $2 in the next 2 years unless the Oil will move to $100 price range.

Can I be wrong/ Never (just kidding) :)