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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Future value of CLL share

Future value of CLL share

posted on Sep 29, 2009 06:28PM

Hi board. I've been reading this space daily for a long time. Always fun to read the good, the bad and the ugly comments. And it's good to hear the European perspective from our long suffering Belgian shareholders, that's a rare thing on most boards.

One subject I don't recall having been discussed is what do we believe CLL will be valued at per share in the near future? When all is said and done, we are investors in this company because we think it will make us richer. How much richer?

DGs press release today sure painted a positive picture for the rest of this year and 2010. Assuming Dick's ducks and stars are aligned fortunately and Algar gets built on time and starts percolating the tarry sands beneath it in Q4 2010, and oil stays north of $60 from here on in, then CLL should be producing 20k boe's daily (bitumen + conventional + ng) by end of 2011.

Too conservative? Maybe, but better to err on the side of caution than euphoria. So, netbacks. In the CLL presentation, DG says $23.95 but that depends on soooo many variables. What's the margin of error: 10%, 15% ?? Let's be conservative again, and call it $20 per boe, cash in pocket. With approx 420 million share outstanding (incl options), 330 days of production per year, that gives us (20k * $20 * 330)/420million = $0.31 pshare. Give it a p/cf of 8, 10, ? Let's call it 10. Will CLL be worth $3.10 ps at end of 2011?

It's good to have a p/s number in mind. I wonder how many people think CLL is a future $5 p/s company, or a $10, or even a $20 ps.

This a good question for the board: What will CLL be worth per share end of 2011?

Cheers to all!

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