THe terrible recent stock performance IMO is related to the following perception

COnnacher needs so much capital to create an effective barrel of SAGD production that it makes less and less sense to grow in this small structure with very high cost of capital ( either equiy or debt)

All COnnacher is built on the premise that they will deliver fast cost effective and as expected, on an oilsand lease that most probably is not a top one as the top ones were sized way before by the big guys. We know little of reservoir quality etc ... all was to be justified by results

The proof by production is currently failing even after more allocation of time and budget for fixes... If production does not go to 9500 bopd soon CONNACHER is a FAILURE because they had to dril more wells add more pumps some of which already failed , fix boiler problems, etc .. and still yet the 90/95% production is not here several semesters after.

Even if there is a way forward Connacher has already proved that small caps and SAGD are not a good fit.

The whole COnnacher concept is down because if they cannot produce cost effectively in this areas then it is useless to duplicate and it is even more useles to delineate new resources

All SAGD operations have output problems and Connacher not being the worse is not positive.

The bitumen in place in alberta is soooo maaasssive at 1 700 billions barrels that everybody knows that it makes sense to produce only the BEST RESERVES first.If what Connacher delineates is not top decile qualty reservoirs it is worthless. Ihave strong doubts that this delineation will create value.

Also a refinerie for 10 000 bpd is just an artefact with questionable sustainability in a world of 400 000 bpd refineries and closing.

All in all connacher may be going nowhere except for debt servicing.

The most neded factual data is an updated cashflow analysis with algar producing and debt servicing.

If Connacher doesnot grow its way out what is it worth ?

Hubisan