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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Connacher's Natural Gas numbers

Connacher's Natural Gas numbers

posted on Oct 24, 2009 11:56AM

Does anyone know exactly how much it currently costs Connacher to produce one Mcf of Natural Gas? The only natural gas figures given in the Q2 Report state that Connachers Q2 natural gas production was 12,144 Mcf/d and a 6 month production level of 12,484 Mcf/d. But there is no mention of the cost of producing one Mcf of natural gas. The Q2 Report states that Connacher received $3.35 per Mcf in Q2 and that over 6 months Connacher received $4.13 per Mcf ending June 30th for 6 months. However , I cannot find anywhere how much it costs Connacher to produce its natural gas specifically. Why not? We know that Connacher's cost of producing one bbl/d of bitumen is currently under $15.00 . But nowhere in the Q2 report or elsewhere does Connacher reveal its cost of producing one Mcf of natural gas.

It is therefore impossible for the common shareholder to accurately determine whether Connacher is currently making a profit or a loss on its natural gas production with today's price for natural gas at $4.747 per Mcf according to globefund.com http://www.globeinvestor.com/v5/content/commodities/groups/major.html?action=quote&cID=GLOBEINV&iFSQsymbols=NG&iFSQtype=future The production cost of each Mcf of natural gas that Connacher produces is extremely important when you look at the forward selling price for natural gas going to $6.00 per Mcf by next summer and of $7.00 per Mcf the following year. Why are we being kept in the dark on this? I want to know at what price Connacher makes a profit on selling its natural gas. For managment to state that natural gas production offsets the cost of the natural gas that it must purchase for burning at the Great Divide does not cut it. In the 2009 Q2 Report Dick Gusella stated on page 3 : " Connacher is substantially indifferent to natural gas price levels, in that we consume approximately the same amount of natural gas as the company's current production levels." This quote is very revealing as it indicates managements philosophy in terms of Connacher's natural gas production, which it views as merely a cost of producing one $15.00 bbl of bitumen. They don't look at how much they sell each Mcf of natural gas for on the market and then how much it costs them to buy each Mcf of natural gas at the Great Divide. As Jurek stated months ago this is not an equal trade off as Connacher must be selling its natural gas for less and paying more to buy each Mcf of natural gas to burn at the Great Divide. But what is the difference in the two costs? (Also, when Algar comes onstream Connacher will not be producing the same amount of natural gas as it is consuming.)

Furthermore, the updated press release from yesterday only talks about the upcoming seizmic program and core drilling program this winter. Nowhere does it mention that any of the $30 million dollars will be spent on drilling up more natural gas wells where a previous press release indicated this. I have been trying to locate the source which stated previously that Connacher has a lot of natural gas behind pipe waiting to be hooked up to the pipeline this winter, and that Connacher was also looking at junior natural gas companies or properties that they might buy cheaply in the current economic environment. Has management decided not to pursue natural gas acquisitions now? Has management decided to leave its stranded gas behind pipe for another year or will it be hooked up to the pipeline this winter? Or are they waiting to drop this information on us at a later date and reveal the costs? We all know that when Algar comes on stream in April that Connacher is going to need to increase its natural gas production substantially yet there is no mention of this and most of Connacher's natural gas properties are only accessible to drilling and pipeline connection during the winter freeze up which is in 2 months.

So if anybody knows the exact numbers for Connacher's natural gas cost to produce one MCf of natural gas please post the numbers.

Best Wishes; Scott

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