Hi Cornergas,
I am ok with your first laconic answer. Don't worry.
I hold for the moment for 3 reasons :
1/ I have an average price of about 2.1 and I bet significantly. Thereofre I am not in a hurry to take a loss of 55%. Even if the value is 1.0, if kind people may want to price it at 2 I would be happy to sell higher ... this seems not to be the case right now but when algar comes on line the market may again give a bonus on valuation.
2/ I have uncertainty on COnnacher future cashflow and it depends on the oil price in dollars. I am positive on the price of oil in dollars. In my post I only put a "sketch of cashflow" to show that Connacher valuation at 1 $ is not so strange. But a bette estimate of cashflow per barrel is needed to provide a value estimate. This is crucial homework to do and the inputs from Spiderman and Jurek are interesting
3/ Algar is rumored to be built with provisions for expansion. Once an expansion cost after 20 kboepd is made public there may be upside. But Algar must first be operational for the market to listen to such news.
The reason not to hold is that if oil price go down again with recession Connacher cashflow may not even pay for interest on debt.
Hubisan